In today's context of economic globalization, the price movement of Bitcoin acts like a heavy bomb, continuously impacting the nerves of global financial markets. Since November 5, when Trump led Harris to kick off the election process, Bitcoin has surged like a runaway horse. Its price rose from less than seventy thousand dollars to one hundred thousand dollars in just over half a month, continuously breaking historical records and even surpassing silver and Saudi Aramco, becoming the world's seventh largest asset with a total value of 19.3 trillion dollars.
The explosive rise of Bitcoin has caused a massive influx of hot money into the cryptocurrency market, creating a significant shock to gold, the world's largest asset. On the day Trump won the election, November 6, the price of gold dropped by three percent, and within a week, it fell by as much as seven percent. This raises the question: why would Trump's ascent have such a huge impact on Bitcoin?
In fact, all of this originates from Trump's campaign promises. He has repeatedly claimed that once in office, he would elevate support for cryptocurrency to national policy. In an interview with CNBC on March 11 this year, Trump stated that if elected again, he would remove regulations on cryptocurrency. On May 21, his team announced they would accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as campaign donations, which undoubtedly sent a strong signal to the market. By July, at the Tennessee Bitcoin conference, Trump further escalated his support for Bitcoin. He declared that if he returned to the White House, Bitcoin would be designated as a strategic reserve asset for the United States, held one hundred percent, and never sold. At the same time, he vowed to make America the capital of global cryptocurrency, becoming a superpower in Bitcoin. After his speech, Bitcoin's price once approached the seventy thousand dollar mark.
However, the support for Bitcoin is not merely Trump's personal action; there is a consensus within the Republican Party, along with a detailed strategic plan. Just four days after Trump’s speech, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis submitted the (National Optimized Investment Promotion Innovation Technology and Competitiveness (Bitcoin) Act) to the U.S. Senate. This act proposes to continuously purchase one million Bitcoins over a certain period, accounting for about five percent of the total supply. The funds for purchasing will be raised through the sale of a portion of the eight thousand tons of gold reserves and existing cash held by the Treasury, with the Treasury responsible for operating the Bitcoin reserves, making the Treasury Secretary a key figure. Moreover, Trump’s nominated Treasury Secretary Scott Basset is a hedge fund mogul from Wall Street, a former deputy to Soros, and has vigorously supported Trump's Bitcoin policy since the beginning of this year, thus the Treasury is ready. Additionally, the nominees for the Secretaries of Justice and Defense are also enthusiastic supporters of cryptocurrency.
Moreover, it is not just the Republicans supporting Bitcoin. Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy publicly declared at the Bitcoin conference in July that if elected president, he would request the Treasury to purchase five hundred and fifty Bitcoins daily, ultimately establishing a strategic reserve of four million coins, four times the scale of the Republican plan. Currently, some states have started to respond; on November 14, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives proposed the (Bensalem Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act), requiring the government to allocate ten percent of the seventy billion dollars in state funds, or seven billion dollars, to purchase Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. The world’s largest asset management company, BlackRock, has also publicly supported the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve in the U.S., indicating that Jewish capital also recognizes the Republican approach.
So, what exactly do Americans intend by supporting cryptocurrency so fervently? The answer is to repay debts. Earlier this year, Trump, Lummis, and many big players in the crypto space mentioned that Bitcoin could be used to address America's debt problem. The total federal debt of the U.S. has surpassed 36 trillion dollars, while the total market value of gold worldwide is only 18 trillion dollars. Even if all 19.5 million existing Bitcoins were in the hands of the U.S. government, each Bitcoin would need to reach 1.84 million dollars to settle the federal debt, meaning Bitcoin must rise at least eighteen times.
The Trump administration's current hype around Bitcoin bears a striking resemblance to the monetary reform methods adopted by many rulers in times of fiscal crisis throughout history. In Chinese history, it was common for dynasties in their twilight years to mint large amounts of money to save their regimes. For example, during the Xianfeng era, to suppress the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, Emperor Xianfeng began minting various large coins from 1853 onwards, such as coins worth fifty, five hundred, and one thousand. For instance, the thousand-unit coin had a nominal value equivalent to one thousand small coins, but the actual gold content was only equivalent to thirty-eight small coins, allowing the rulers to plunder the wealth of the populace in this manner. After Wang Mang usurped the throne, in order to combat the powerful and prolong the life of the Xin dynasty, he minted large coins like the five-thousand-unit coin, stipulating that one golden knife could be exchanged for five thousand five-zhu coins; with two golden knives, one could exchange for one pound of gold, forcibly compelling the powerful to exchange gold for bronze knives, obtaining seven hundred thousand pounds of gold within just one year. Emperor Wu of Han also issued leather currency, with a square-foot leather coin valued at four hundred thousand coins, mandating that noble families place their jade disks atop the leather coins when meeting the emperor or during sacrifices, thereby exchanging leather coins for gold.
In addition to minting large amounts of money, there are also methods for minting small amounts. During the Three Kingdoms period, after Dong Zhuo abducted Emperor Xian and fled to Chang'an, he destroyed nine copper figures and other copperware due to a lack of military funds and minted unmarked small coins. These coins were light and thin, with large square holes, weighing only one-tenth of the standard currency of the Han dynasty, causing serious inflation, with prices in Chang'an skyrocketing and goods becoming untradeable. When entering the paper currency era, the Kuomintang crazily printed money starting in 1947 to raise military funds, leading to hyperinflation; after receiving their salaries, professors at Peking University needed to run immediately to buy rice, or else rice prices would rise.
Minting small coins may bring some benefits to the government in the short term, but it has many side effects. On one hand, the inflation caused by small coins can damage the legitimacy of the regime, accelerating its collapse; for instance, after Dong Zhuo minted small coins, he lost popular support and was ultimately killed by Wang Yun and Lü Bu; after the Kuomintang minted small coins, the economy in the controlled areas collapsed, leading to their retreat to Taiwan in just two years. On the other hand, excessive issuance of currency diminishes the public's trust in their national currency, prompting the populace to abandon its use; for example, Cao Cao prohibited the use of the unmarked small coins minted by Dong Zhuo, allowing private minting of five-zhu coins to restore the economy; after the hyperinflation caused by the Weimar government's money printing in the 1920s, Germans abandoned the Mark and began trading in pounds and dollars. Today, while the U.S. dollar is the global currency, excessive printing of dollars has not triggered hyperinflation domestically in the U.S., but it has diluted wealth in other countries, leading them to reduce their use of dollars, such as through currency swaps and barter systems. Meanwhile, the U.S. debt problem is becoming increasingly severe, with federal debt continuing to climb, and new debt accruing at least 2.5 trillion dollars each year. Conventional methods can no longer address the debt issue, hence attempts are made to solve it through speculation on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, similar to the strategy of minting large amounts of money.
However, the time will come when the facade of worthless currency is revealed. Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, lacking the backing of national credit, making it susceptible to manipulation by various big players. However, if the U.S. government includes Bitcoin in its national reserves, it could inject national credit into it, promoting market speculation. Additionally, the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs has lowered investment barriers, attracting more funds to raise its market value, but this does not change its nature as a worthless currency. Historically, after Wang Mang implemented a new currency, it led to market chaos, and the leather currency issued by Emperor Wu of Han was eventually abolished due to circulation difficulties and counterfeiting issues. Today, if the U.S. attempts to repay its debts through such means, it would undoubtedly treat the people of various countries as fools; investors are well aware that gold is the ultimate form of wealth storage, and the frenzy around Bitcoin is unlikely to last.
The Trump administration's hype around cryptocurrency may be a conspiracy of some American elites, who attempt to use national credit to boost the value of the cryptocurrencies they hold, amplifying their personal wealth before cashing out. While the U.S. faces a crisis, there are no wise individuals stepping up to solve the fundamental issues, instead, financial giants and politicians lead it astray, sharply contrasting with historical situations, which makes one sigh that this may just be the fate of a financial empire. The U.S. strategy of speculating on Bitcoin, though seemingly novel, is actually reminiscent of historical methods of minting large amounts of money. How it will ultimately end remains to be seen.#市场回调抄底还是观望？ #加密市场回调 