🚀🔥Not Pixel Tokenomics🔥🚀 check it out via the link (copy and paste into the browser (remove the space))
//t.m e/notpixel/app?startapp=f5038459873_t
Part 1. Audience.
Not Pixel users can be divided into four categories:
1. Inactive player
2. Active player
3. Active donator
4. Influencer/referrer
The release of Not Pixel took place on September 24, and during this time the project has steadily maintained 20 million MAU.
The number of 20 million can be considered a key indicator, as more than two months have passed since the release, and the statistics have been updated several times.
What do we know about these 20 million users?
At least part of them will be banned, as according to the pixels: around ~5 million bots and accounts with farms have been found.
It is doubtful that all five million are active. Most of them are likely associated with referral boosting services.
Roughly estimating, it can be assumed that only 10–20% of these accounts are related to real farms, which constitutes 500k–1 million users who will be blocked from those 20 million MAU.
The active audience is about 15–25% of the total MAU. Such a small percentage of active players is not a problem for the project, but rather a common phenomenon of referral systems.
Referral links remain an important tool for attracting an audience, but they also create difficulties in the form of bots, distorting statistics and a low percentage of active players (including paying ones). However, without a referral system, many users might not have learned about the project at all, making the system a double-edged sword.
Part 2. Farming Phase & Balance
So who is an active user?
Let's calculate the balance of a player who joined Not Pixel in the early days, meaning he has spent about 67 days in the game: Of these, he missed an average of 5% for any reason. (67*0.05)
The maximum energy value before the introduction of Check-ins was 24. (maximum leveling was achieved in a few days) Recovery speed (at maximum leveling) = 1 Energy / 5 min => = 24 Energy / 120 min (2 hours).
An active user could have 3-5 gaming sessions daily. (avg = 4)
For simplicity, we will consider based on the last gaming economy, where the user received +12 PX for correct coloring and +0 for incorrect.
If the player is not a bot, his accuracy is 70-80% 'correct' (+12 PX) colorings
We get the formula for PX for one gaming session:
PX_Farmed_Per_Game = 12 24
The user spent such gaming days throughout the farming period:
67 - 67
Now we need to add the total number of pixels received from the Claim mechanic.
For this, we have the formula within the game:
Each correctly colored pixel adds 0.1 PX to Claim.
That is, on the first day with N colored pixels, we will have ~N*0.1 PX per Claim.
For each subsequent gaming session, you will add ~N*0.1 PX to Claim, receiving for it already ~2*N*0.1 PX per Claim, etc.
An active user with 3-5 gaming sessions a day could receive 1-2 Claims per Day. (avg = 1.5 Claims per Day & 1 claim per 3 gaming sessions)
The general formula for Claim will look as follows:
PX_Claimed = 3 * N <PX> * 0.1 + 2 * 3 * N <PX> * 0.1 + 3 * 3 * N <PX> * 0.1 + ... + 1.5 <Claims per Day> * 63.65 <Days> * 3 * N <PX> * 0.1, where N = PX_Farmed_Per_Game = 12 <PX> * 24 <Energy> * [0.7 ; 0.8] <accuracy>
It's time to put everything together:
The player's balance after 67 days of active gaming will be:
PX_Farmed_Per_Game * 4 <avg gaming sessions> * 63.65 <Days> + PX_Claimed = PX_Farmed_Per_Game * 4 <avg gaming sessions> * 63.65 <Days> + 3 * PX_Farmed_Per_Game <PX> * 0.1 + 2 * 3 * PX_Farmed_Per_Game <PX> * 0.1 + 3 * 3 * PX_Farmed_Per_Game <PX> * 0.1 + ... + 1.5 <Claims per Day> * 63.65 <Days> * 3 * PX_Farmed_Per_Game <PX> * 0.1 = PX_Farmed_Per_Game * ( 4 <avg gaming sessions> * 63.65 <Days> + 3 * 0.1 * (1 + 2 + 3 + ... + 1.5 <Claims per Day> * 63.65 <Days>)) =
= 12 <PX> * 24 <Energy> * [0.7 ; 0.8] <accuracy> * ( 4 <avg gaming sessions> * 63.65 <Days> + 3 * 0.1 * (1 + 2 + 3 + ... + 1.5 <Claims per Day> * 63.65 <Days>))
Without explanation:
Balance_Active_User = 24 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * ( 12 * 4 * 63.65 + 3 * 0.1 * (1 + 2 + 3 + ... + 1.5 * 63.65)) = [74309.76 ; 84925.44] PX
Let's add rewards for completing tasks here: about 6-7k PX for completing most simple tasks.
We get a range of [80 309 ; 91 925] PX. This is how much an active player can earn without donations and referrals before the start of the tournament phase.
Such players will make up only about 4-5% of the total number. However, that is not little, as their number will be around 1,000,000! (Top 1M players rule, have you heard?)
Now let's imagine a player with less gaming time. His gaming sessions will be rarer — about 1–2 a day (averaging 1.5). There will also be fewer claims — about 1 a day (the number of gaming sessions per claim will be 1.5), and the missed days will be more, around 10%. Let's see what we get for such a player:
PX_Farmed_Per_Game (the number of pixels per gaming session remains unchanged) = 12 <PX> * 24 <Energy> * [0.7 ; 0.8] <accuracy>
The number of game days will be: 67 - 67*-0.1 = 60.3
Balance_Default_User = 24 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * ( 12 * 1 * 60.3 + 1.5 * 0.1 * (1 + 2 + 3 + ... + 60.3)) = [16733.52 ; 19194.24] PX Adding quest completions gives us a range: [22 733 ; 26 194] PX
A user who checked in daily from November 4 will receive advantages in the form of additional items and increased energy.
How much does the balance differ between an active player and one who did daily check-ins?
The main difference manifests in the last 25 days. For a player who did not check in, these days remain gaming days but without additional bonuses (42 gaming days without check-ins versus 25 days from the first check-in).
Thus, every 4 days, a user with check-ins will gain +4 to their maximum energy reserve, unlike a regular player. The final difference in accumulated items will be:
88 TNT — each of which gives 25 repaintings
24 energy refills — each fully restores energy, providing 24/28/32/36/40/44 repaintings, depending on the maximum energy reserve
88 barrels of paint — each provides 9 repaintings.
The approximate difference in efficiency looks as follows:
Farmed_Diff = 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 4 (21 + 17 + 13 + 9 + 5 + 1) PX = = [8870.4 ; 10137.6] PX Claimed_Diff = 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 + 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 2 + ... + + 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 1.5 4 + (4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 7 + 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1) + ... + (4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 2 1.5 4 + 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 1.5 4) + ... + (4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 31 + 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 25 + 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 19 + 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 13 + 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 7 + 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 1.5) We simplify the expression: Claimed_Diff = 4 12 [0.7 ; 0.8] 3 0.1 ((1 + 2 + ... + 31) + (1 + 2 + ... + 25) + + (1 + 2 + ... + 19) + (1 + 2 + ... + 13) + (1 + 2 + ... + 7) + 1) = = [11400.48 ; 13029.12] PX The total difference for an active player will be: [20 270 ; 23 170] PX Items, by preliminary estimation, can provide additional: ~ (12 25 84 + 12 9 64 + 12 0.75 32 20) 2.29 = 86 725 PX In total: The overall difference (on the 25th day of check-ins) will be: [106 995 ; 109 895] PX
But what about paying users?
We will approach the generated PX from in-game purchases a bit differently when calculating supply further.
A small summary:
Thus, we have portraits of 3 different players:
Active player — earned about ~83 000 PX
Regular player — received ~23 000 PX
Active player who completed all check-ins — earned ~190 000 PX
Now let's calculate how much you can earn from such a referral:
You will receive 16% only from his Claim earnings (and a bit for league achievements), which means you will earn (for the phase of the game before the tournament):
From an active player: PX_Claimed * 0.16 = ~ 4 000 PX
From a regular player: ~ 1 120 PX
And from a player who did check-ins: ~ 11 000 PX
For example:
If you are an active player and invited 2 active players and 9 regular ones, your balance will be >100 000 PX, allowing you to claim a drop.
If you are a regular player, then to achieve this goal, it is enough to invite, for example, 4 players who did check-ins, 5 active players, and 10 regular ones.
Keep in mind that these calculations do not include donations, as well as bonuses from participating in events such as puzzles or events like pumpkin gathering. These factors can significantly increase your PX income.
Part 3. Collecting supply in pieces
To determine the volume of supply, it is important to understand that not all players will be included, but only those who meet the drop criteria (100k PX). This is good for the project's economy: the drop will be concentrated, and the supply will not be diluted among all users, including bots.
So how many such users are there?
Let's start with an estimate. Among active players without donations, as I mentioned earlier, there are about 1,000,000 people. However, not all of them will reach the drop; approximately 70–80% of that number will. Players who regularly checked in will almost certainly receive an increased drop and will also be counted in the supply.
Their contribution will be approximately: [100 000 000 000 ; 110 000 000 000] PX
Influencers and referrers receive 16% of all pixels farmed (through Claim) by their referrals. For analysis, let's take statistics from other projects. For example, in Lost Dogs, about 94% of users were attracted through referral links. Let's assume that in Not Pixel, this figure is 90%.
In total, the base amount of farmed tokens is increased by:
16% Claimed Audience 90%
By rough estimates:
The total contribution from influencers and the referral system will add:
[12 800 000 000 ; 15 600 000 000] PX
Hypothesis: more than 90% of pixels earned through donations will enter the supply, as donators more often reach 100k PX. The average daily income from donations is estimated at $150k–$200k (personal estimate based on observations of notpixel.ton), which over 67 days will amount to:
$10 050 000 – $13 400 000.
According to my calculations, every dollar spent in-game (avg considering discounts and others) brings the player about 1000 PX. This allows us to assume that donations will add to the supply:
[10 050 000 ; 13 400 000] 0.9 1000 = [9 045 000 000 ; 12 060 000 000] PX
In conclusion, the total supply before the tournament will be in the range:
[12 800 000 000 ; 15 600 000 000] PX + [9 045 000 000 ; 12 060 000 000] PX + [100 000 000 000 ; 110 000 000 000] PX = [121.85B ; 137.66B] PX
This is the estimated volume of tokens that can be expected before the start of the next phase of the game.
But this is not the end. Let's move on to the next gaming phase.
Part 4. Tournament
Tournament. Everything you need to know about it in terms of tokenomics - the dedicated pool for it equals 50 B PX.
But is it really that simple? Let's figure it out.
My hypothesis is as follows: all 50 B PX will go into the supply, as rewards are distributed among active users, donators, and inflows, and their balances, as we calculated above, are already either sufficient for drops or close.
Of course, I believe that many players saw the opportunity in the tournament and started playing right now. I estimate that there are no more than 30–40% of such users. This means that among them around
0.94 × 50 000 000 000 PX × [0.3 ; 0.4]
Why exactly that much?
It is important to understand how exactly these rewards will be distributed among participants:
Template owners receive about 4–6% from the daily pool of rewards, based on the current distribution. This means that the rest will go to the most active players.
=> approximately 94% of 50 000 000 000 PX will be distributed among players, let's calculate among how many users the rewards will be distributed.
Dynamics of templates
With each passing day, the number of templates decreases. If you remember the powers of two from school (2¹⁰ = 1024), by the end of 10 rounds we will know the finalist. However, the share of rewards distributed to the template owners increases proportionally to their decreasing number. This creates a balance between the reduction of template numbers and the growth of rewards for users.
By rough estimate, rewards will go to more than 1 000 000 players. (considering intersections between winners of each round)
The impact of farming before and during the tournament
It is important to remember that 30–40% of the rewards will go to regular players who activated at the time of the tournament to reach the necessary balance criteria. This means that it is these users with a balance in the range [19 733; 23 194] PX who will earn a significant share.
Here we are only interested in calculating the impact of the farmed balance before the tournament phase because we have already accounted for the prize pool:
20000 [0.3 ; 0.4] 1 000 000 = [6 000 000 000 ; 8 000 000 000] PX
During the tournament, +4 PX is awarded for each correct repainting, and players can continue to make Claims, increasing the overall supply.
Farming new pixels within the tournament can be estimated as
[5 000 000 000 ; 6 000 000 000] PX
Updated supply values:
Considering all calculations, the updated supply will be:
[122B ; 138B] PX + [61 B ; 64 B] PX = [183B ; 202B] PX
We forgot something:
To the final value, we need to add the portion that will be directed to the team, MM, and everything related to the listing of Not Pixel.
In any case, expect that a large part of the tokens will be distributed among players, and around 20-30% will go to development, marketing, listing, and other needs.
Thus, the final supply will be: [229B ; 289B] PX, depending on the distribution.
If you think that the team takes part for themselves and that it's bad, ask yourself:
Why not distribute 100%? Everyone would be happy!
However, I hasten to assure you that a team that altruistically distributes 100% of tokens is doomed to failure. Without investment in development, the project will not have a future.
This means that your tokens will quickly depreciate, and a project without marketing, a team, and further development will not be interesting from the first day after the listing. Not to mention the importance of MM and launch pools.
Part 5. Price Prediction
SO HOW MUCH IS ONE PIXEL?!
Let's start with neighbors in our ecosystem.
How did the releases of other projects go this year?
Notcoin:
MarketCap at release: $1 B ;
ATH $2.7 B ;
MarketCap now: $1 B.
Dogs:
MarketCap at release: $872 M ;
ATH $872 M ;
MarketCap now: $400 M.
Catizen:
MarketCap at release: $286 M ;
ATH $326 M ;
MarketCap now: $177 M.
Major:
MarketCap at release: $105 M ;
ATH $126 M ;
MarketCap now: $101 M.
If you have been closely following the listings this year, you have probably noticed a clear progress in the smoothness of the releases themselves. The processes are becoming more optimized: errors corrected, experience gained, participants learning.
Pixel will be one of the final major launches of this year.
And how will it be released?
It is worth focusing on the successes of large projects launched this year, as well as the mood of the market and Not Pixel players:
With favorable market sentiment and Pixel's release at a successful moment (which we are observing now), an average market capitalization of around $300+ million can be expected. The project is moving quickly, not giving the audience a chance to get 'bored', while generating income at a level (or even more) with those who spend six months preparing for the listing.
The supply will be small and concentrated on a loyal active audience. This means that the pressure on the market will be significantly lower than that of some other projects (hello, 'Hamster', lol). All of this creates conditions for a positive release, especially against the backdrop of the general market sentiment.
The project has not stalled in its development, which favorably distinguishes it from many competitors. The release is quick, although not as rapid as Dogs', but the gaming mechanics and activities have been diverse. This busy season has likely left players with positive impressions. Pixel even allowed many to recall the good old pixel battle.
Strangely enough, most of the successful ideas implemented in Vk follow the course of Durov's team and its key project — Telegram. This allows them to gain new life and greater success within the updated ecosystem.
ATH
With a positive market background and support from news about Pixel and the TON ecosystem, a market capitalization in the range of $600-800 million can be expected, which will likely become the ATH for the project.
Considering the supply in the range of [229B ; 289B] PX, the projected token price in the first days of release:
$[0.001 ; 0.0013] => the minimum drop for players will be $100–$130!
Upon reaching ATH, the token price may reach:
$[0.0021 ; 0.0035], and the minimum drop of 100k PX will be valued at $210–$350!
A few words about the Error
The magnitude of the error can be influenced not only by approximations in calculations. Among other factors:
unaccounted item distributions,
achievements for beta testing,
rewards for template authors,
possible new gaming events that may affect overall farming,
the actual listing date, which is still unknown.
etc
It is important to note that the supply calculation is based solely on personal observations and estimates, not supported by hidden game data. Anyone can perform similar calculations independently.
We hope to see a great listing with a generous drop, similar to what was seen with Notcoin.
Not Pixel is a significant step in the development of games in the TMA ecosystem. If you liked this article, share it with friends or leave a comment!
check it out via the link (copy and paste into the browser (remove the space))
/t.m e/notpixel/app?startapp=f5038459873_t