Recently, the price of Bitcoin has soared dramatically after Trump's election victory, quickly approaching $100,000 from under $70,000, surpassing assets like silver and Saudi Aramco, becoming the seventh largest asset globally. This phenomenon reflects not only fluctuations in market sentiment but also the undercurrents of a large-scale monetary reform by the U.S. government — integrating Bitcoin into the national strategic reserves.
However, through Trump's high-profile support, do we also see a modern version of the 'minting large money' game?
Behind the surge in Bitcoin: Trump's strategy
1. Bitcoin as a national-level asset:
From accepting Bitcoin donations during the campaign to publicly committing to include Bitcoin in national reserves, Trump's strategy has repeatedly signaled to the market. His nominated Treasury Secretary Scott Bensent, the Republican Bitcoin bill, and Bitcoin strategic reserve plans in states like Pennsylvania constitute a complete national-level 'speculation strategy'.
2. The economic logic of pushing up Bitcoin:
U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, far exceeding the total market value of gold globally. If the U.S. can support policies that push Bitcoin prices to $1.84 million per coin, it may be possible to use cryptocurrency to pay off debt. This is a 'appreciation - repayment - rise' logical closed loop, but the cost may be a crisis of trust in global markets.
3. The alliance between the Republican Party and capital:
The cooperation between the Republican Party and financial giants like BlackRock shows that the Bitcoin strategy goes beyond policy levels and involves deep capital participation. Through ETFs, financial derivatives, and other tools, the U.S. financial market has transformed Bitcoin into an investment product that 'everyone can participate in', thus maximizing the absorption of market funds.
Minting large money: Echoes of history
The Trump administration's strategy is not groundbreaking. In Chinese history, this method of increasing the face value of currency to resolve fiscal crises, known as 'minting large money', has occurred multiple times.
• The thousand-dollar big money during the Xianfeng years: A face value thousands of times greater, but with negligible metal content, essentially a tool for plundering wealth.
• Wang Mang's gold-casting knife: Using new currency to harvest gold from the people, causing economic turmoil.
• The leather currency of Emperor Wu of Han: Well designed, but difficult to circulate, ultimately abolished.
The common point of these cases is that the trust foundation of currency is weakened, ultimately leading to a total collapse of society and the economy.
My observation: A new form of crisis
From the Trump administration's support for Bitcoin to the hype in the entire financial market, I see a phenomenon worth pondering:
1. The vulnerability of Bitcoin:
Although Bitcoin is a product of decentralized technology, its price is still subject to manipulation by large capital. Once the U.S. government uses Bitcoin as a tool for 'minting large money', global market trust may significantly decline.
2. The risk of financial bubbles:
If the price of Bitcoin is forcibly pushed up by policy, subsequent crashes may trigger a larger economic crisis, potentially affecting global financial markets.
3. The ambition of 'global currency':
Trump attempts to replace gold with Bitcoin to reconstruct the dollar-dominated global financial order. But the question is, can Bitcoin bear this mission? If it fails, the U.S. may further undermine global credit.
1. If the U.S. really uses Bitcoin to pay off debt, do you think the market will accept it?
2. Will Bitcoin become the new core of the global monetary system?
3. Is the current surge in Bitcoin prices a market behavior or artificially driven?
Trump's integration of Bitcoin into national strategy is undoubtedly a bold economic and political attempt. However, the risks behind it are equally significant. History tells us that currency is a symbol of social trust; any behavior deviating from the basis of trust may bring unpredictable consequences.
"Bitcoin may be America's last gamble, but the outcome of this gamble could determine the future of the world."
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