Original Author: Miles Deutscher, Crypto Analyst
Translated by: Yuliya, PANews
The market is experiencing a critical turning point. After Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark this week, investors' attention has shifted to the next price target. Based on comprehensive data analysis, multiple indicators are showing that Bitcoin is likely to reach new heights of $150,000 in 2025.
This report will conduct an in-depth analysis through 10 key indicators from the following four dimensions:
Time Series Cycle Analysis
Macroeconomic Factors
Market Demand Dynamics
On-chain Data Indicators
Time Series Cycle Analysis
1. The current Bitcoin price trend is highly similar to past cycles.
2. The market has entered the most explosive phase, which is the fastest period for price acceleration.
3. Throughout historical cycles, Bitcoin tends to enter the red zone of the power law probability model (97% percentile). If this cycle repeats this pattern, it means Bitcoin's price will break through $196,000.
Macroeconomic Factors
4. The current macro environment is in the most favorable state since 2021. Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to changes in monetary policy and global liquidity.
5. It is expected that interest rates will continue to decline in 2025, creating strong macro support for risk assets.
Market Demand Dynamics
6. MicroStrategy continues to buy according to its 21/21 plan (targeting to hold 21% of Bitcoin's total supply, with $29.3 billion remaining to be invested).
This affects Bitcoin demand in two ways:
MicroStrategy's continuous and aggressive buying pressure
Speculative funds are positioning in advance to cope with future buying pressure
7. The U.S. spot ETF holdings have exceeded 1.1 million Bitcoin, surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings. This brings sustained buying pressure. The spot ETF has also created an extremely strong 'unit deviation' effect.
On-chain Data Indicators
8. Retail demand for Bitcoin has surged, reaching the highest level since 2020.
9. New capital is driving the current price trend of Bitcoin. 'Even at $102,000, it is far from bubble levels - a 43% increase is needed to reach the threshold typically considered a bubble.'
10. Even at the $100,000 level, profit-taking pressure is easing, indicating that selling pressure is cooling.
Market Outlook
Multiple current factors are highly aligned, indicating that the upward trend will continue. In such a macro environment, Bitcoin breaking through $150,000 will inject strong momentum into the entire cryptocurrency market.
The increase in market liquidity will inevitably lead to a larger upward trend, especially for the altcoin market. In the coming weeks, we will continue to track and share noteworthy altcoin investment opportunities.
