This week's highly anticipated US November non-farm payroll data came in better than expected, but it hasn't been hot enough to prevent the Fed from possibly lowering interest rates again later this month. The market has pushed the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to around 90%. Meanwhile, an increasing number of Fed officials tend to favor a cautious approach to rate cuts. In the coming week, US inflation data is the only potentially significant data that could shake the Fed's expectations for a rate cut in December. After the data showed that the US labor market remains strong but shows signs of slowing down, Fed officials seem likely to cut rates this month, but the debate about possibly pausing rate cuts next year has come to the table. Before the Fed’s quiet period, policymakers generally indicated they expect rates to continue declining while taking a cautious stance on the pace of cuts. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:
Monday 23:00, US October wholesale sales month-on-month;
Tuesday 0:00, US November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
Wednesday 21:30, US November CPI and core CPI;
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7; US November PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;
Friday 1:00, the Federal Reserve announces account fund flows for the third quarter of 2024;
Friday 21:30, US November import price index month-on-month.
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After two days of significant fluctuations, Bitcoin has recently entered a small fluctuation range in the past 24 hours, moving between 98,000 and 100,000. Yesterday, a small bullish doji candlestick appeared at a high level, and while the space has not further expanded, the retracement space is small, replacing the drop with consolidation, still representing a strong bullish consolidation trend, and there is still potential for upward momentum in the short term. On the four-hour level, Bitcoin's price is gradually recovering in a stepwise manner, with around 97,500 acting as a minor low point for consolidation and upward accumulation. Overall, the rhythm is not yet in a strong unilateral trend, but the price is accompanied by repeated attempts to test highs and confirm pullbacks, while the trend rhythm is still upward. Therefore, we should primarily focus on following the bullish trend, looking for a continuation of the rebound in the short cycle, with key attention on the resistance levels of short-term rebound highs!
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Ethereum has finally broken through previous resistance, with prices as expected rising to the 4000 position, reaching around 4092 where it faced pressure. The current price has pulled back to around 4000, fluctuating in this range without breaking again. This kind of fluctuating trend doesn't require excessive interpretation; overall, it just maintains a range-bound fluctuation. After all, the ups and downs given last week were quite large, and it just so happens to use the weekend to digest. Overall, it is still in a correction method that exchanges time for space. The online fluctuations are alternating between small declines and small gains, and the space is narrowing. The trend is slightly circuitous within a stable upward channel, currently in a consolidation and accumulation phase. The current market momentum is relatively weak, without significant counter-trends, and the short-term pullback has not extended deeply, indicating that there is still potential for climbing in the future. Therefore, the strategy suggests accumulating at lower levels, closely following the major trend, with strong bullish confidence.
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Ethereum's breakthrough has also boosted the performance of the altcoin market, as the performance of altcoins continues to highlight the rotation of sectors. AAVE surged to 291 USD, nearing 300 USD. The previously strong pullback of XRP, SOL, HBAR, and LTC, which had expectations for spot ETF approval, has regained its upward momentum. This surge is occurring just as many are chasing high prices and getting caught in losses, and there has been a wild surge of popular altcoins OL and MORPHO. Therefore, in the altcoin bull market, your operations must keep pace with the rotation rhythm of the sectors.