Bitcoin has strongly breached the long-awaited $100,000 barrier, raising questions about how much higher it can go and whether it can shake off its notorious volatility.

The price of the world's largest cryptocurrency rose to around $103,400 just after 04:00 GMT on Thursday, before falling slightly.

Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AG Bell, described the event as a “magic moment” for the cryptocurrency, noting that the surge is “clearly” linked to Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

Trump celebrated the milestone on social media, posting “Congratulations to Bitcoiners” and “You’re welcome!” Trump had previously pledged to make the United States the “crypto capital” and the “Bitcoin powerhouse of the world,” which helped drive Bitcoin’s price higher after he was elected president.

Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark after Trump announced his intention to nominate Paul Atkins, a former commissioner at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to head the Wall Street regulator. Atkins is considered more supportive of cryptocurrencies than current chairman Gary Gensler.

“There is clearly an expectation that the new administration will be more crypto-friendly than the previous administration,” said Andrew O’Neill, digital assets strategist at S&P Global. “So I think that’s what’s driven the uptrend so far, and it’s likely to continue into the new year.”

However, bitcoin has a history of sharp declines alongside rapid rises, and some analysts have warned that this is unlikely to change. “A lot of people have gotten rich off the cryptocurrency’s surge this year, but these high-risk assets aren’t for everyone,” Coatsworth said. “They’re volatile, unpredictable and speculative, all of which make them an investment you can’t sleep easy on.”

Trump effect

During his campaign, Trump sought to woo crypto investors by promising to fire Gary Gensler, the head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), on “day one” of his presidency. Gensler’s approach to the crypto sector has been less friendly than Trump’s, saying in September that he considered the sector “full of scams and crooks.”

Under his leadership, the SEC launched 46 crypto-related enforcement actions against companies in 2023. Gensler said in November that he would resign on Jan. 20, the day Trump was inaugurated as president.

The selection of Paul Atkins to replace Gensler as SEC chair has been welcomed by cryptocurrency advocates. Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of US cryptocurrency firm Galaxy Digital, said he hopes a “clearer regulatory path” will help accelerate the crypto ecosystem’s entry into the “financial mainstream.”

Historical analysis of the value of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s value has fluctuated significantly in recent years. On July 31, 2010, the price of Bitcoin was just 6 cents. Its price remained relatively low until it reached around $14,000 in December 2017. It then declined before reaching a peak of around $59,000 in March 2021, before falling again, reaching $61,000 in October 2021. Bitcoin saw a significant drop in December 2022, reaching around $17,000 before jumping to around $103,000 on December 5, 2024.

In 2024, Bitcoin saw less severe declines compared to previous years. In 2022, its price fell sharply to below $16,000 after the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange.

A number of major events other than Trump’s election victory have helped increase investor confidence that its value will continue to rise. Among these events is the SEC’s approval of a number of Bitcoin ETFs, allowing large investment firms such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale to sell products tied to the price of Bitcoin, which have seen a significant influx of liquidity.

But Bitcoin's ability to suddenly drop in value is a reminder that it is not like traditional currencies, and investors have no protection or recourse if they lose money in Bitcoin investments.

Warnings from experts

Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, told the BBC that the “fear of missing out” among young people will keep the price of bitcoin rising. But she added that while this rise in the price of bitcoin could spark a surge in other cryptocurrencies, many young people who invest in meme coins (such as Shiba Inu and Dogecoin) are losing money.

For her part, Kathleen Breitman, co-founder of the cryptocurrency Tozos, warned that “these markets tend to move based on momentum, so you have to be very careful when investing in them.