U.S. data on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls in November were 227,000, higher than the expected value of 200,000, and the previous value was revised from 12,000 to 36,000. The unemployment rate in November was 4.2%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 4.10%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 85%, compared with 67% before the release of the employment report. The three major U.S. stock indexes all hit record highs this week.
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Trump appointed PayPal co-founder David Sacks as the "White House Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency Affairs Director". David will formulate policies for the current US government in the fields of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, both of which are critical to the future economy of the United States. In his appointment letter to David Sacks, Trump stated that Sacks will work to establish a legal framework that will give the cryptocurrency industry the clarity it has always demanded and enable it to thrive in the United States. Analysis pointed out that David Sacks is expected to help lead the way in achieving Trump's campaign promise to relax regulation of the cryptocurrency industry. This position is expected to provide cryptocurrency advocates with a direct channel to the White House and serve as a liaison between Trump, Congress, and federal agencies related to digital assets, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Andrei Grachev, co-founder of DWF Labs, said that AI agents and DeSci seem to be the next hot topics, both of which are aligned with the global AI/technology FOMO. On December 6, the MtGox address sent 3,619 BTC to two addresses. Mizuho Securities strategist Shoki Omori pointed out that if BTC is to rise further from here, other cryptocurrencies should catch up first, and the altcoin market may make up for the rise. Analyst Armando Pantoja predicts that retail investors will return to the cryptocurrency market. Retail investors have been absent from the crypto market for two years and will re-engage in it, especially Musk is good at subtly hinting his love for DOGE, and Musk's behavior usually becomes a catalyst for the market.
On December 5, 2024, the UK (Financial Times) publicly apologized to readers for its negative coverage of cryptocurrencies over the past 14 years. BTC recently surpassed $100,000, and many readers believe it is necessary for the (Financial Times) to apologize for its long-standing skeptical stance. The (Financial Times) expressed regret for any decisions made by readers based on its reporting that may have led them to forgo purchasing assets that later appreciated, as its past 14 years of reporting may have left readers with a skeptical impression of cryptocurrencies. The publication pointed out that the price increase is indeed a positive development. Additionally, the (Financial Times) apologized for any misunderstanding that its cynical attitude towards cryptocurrencies could be interpreted as support for traditional finance, clarifying that it does not endorse such behavior. On December 6, the US spot BTC ETF saw an inflow of $780.78 million, and the US spot ETH ETF saw an inflow of $434.64 million, including outflows of $15.10 million and inflows of $30.70 million for two ETH spot ETFs under Grayscale. In the past five trading days, US ETH spot ETFs have experienced inflows totaling $1.086 billion, far exceeding the total net inflow figures for the previous four months (since July 23). Currently, the total net inflow for US ETH spot ETFs is $1.33 billion. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that BlackRock's IBIT saw inflows of $2.5 billion in the past five days, the highest among all ETFs. On December 5, Tether added $1 billion in stablecoins on the ETH network.
Friday's data showed: The US non-farm payrolls in November were 227,000, exceeding expectations of 200,000, with the previous value revised from 12,000 to 36,000. The US unemployment rate in November was 4.2%, in line with expectations of 4.2%, and higher than the previous value of 4.10%. Analyst Anstey stated that there are signs of a slowing labor market, considering that the current upper limit of the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is 4.75%, more than a percentage point above the core inflation rate, making further rate cuts still justifiable. Caixin Macro analyst Stephen Brown noted that next week's CPI and PPI reports could become the last set of data to prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December; the core inflation in November is expected to show weak growth, which would make a 25 basis point cut more likely than a pause in rate cuts. Federal Reserve's Bostic stated: The decision for the December meeting is not predetermined, and future data will be very important, thus flexibility must be maintained. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated: He expects to continue rate cuts in the next year, and he leans towards supporting a rate cut in December. Federal Reserve's Daly mentioned: To keep the economy in good shape, policy adjustments must continue, and interest rates should decline. Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicated: We are on the road to a 2% inflation target, and interest rates will be 'slightly lower' in a year. BlackRock upgraded its rating on US stocks to 'overweight' in its New Year outlook, believing that superpowers like artificial intelligence will benefit US stocks more, and tax cuts and a relaxed regulatory environment that the soon-to-be-inaugurated Trump may implement should support sustained economic growth. HSBC expects the S&P 500 index to reach a target of 6,700 points by the end of 2025 (currently at 6,089 points).
JPMorgan expects gold to rise to $3,000 per ounce next year, with an average price of $2,950 per ounce in Q4 2025 (currently $2,636 per ounce). The market believes that Trump's selections for high-level positions are 'quite friendly to the market', including investor Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary and cryptocurrency enthusiast Paul Atkins as the head of the SEC. This week, numerous banks and asset management companies, including BlackRock, Northern Trust, and Bank of America, predicted further gains in the US stock market in 2025. Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte indicated that long-term trends may continue to promote new capital inflows, boosting the US stock market next year. On Friday, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 85%, up from 67% prior to the employment report. ETH surpassed $4,000, and BTC crossed the $100,000 mark for the first time on Thursday. All three major US stock indices reached record closing highs this week. Since last month’s US elections, investors have poured nearly $140 billion into US stock funds, as the market believes Trump’s tax cuts and reform measures will stimulate economic growth. US employment continues to slow steadily, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut rates again this month, leading to strong inflows into the stock market, with BTC rising alongside, while other cryptocurrencies performed strongly, indicating a recovery in market confidence and a bullish trend anticipated in the coming year. Compared to traditional assets like the dollar, US stock market, US bonds, and precious metals, BTC is a smaller-sized altcoin that appears more volatile during the former’s bubble growth; the altcoins in the crypto market are even smaller-sized altcoins, which appear more volatile during the earlier bubble growth.
In the coming year, the so-called support for risk assets is the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy and Trump's loose fiscal policy. When the dollar overflows, the so-called value vacuum will naturally fill. Historically, a common issue in a bull market is the search for and difficulty in finding undervalued coins, like the criticized ETH, which has risen from $2,300 last month to $4,000 (other criticized coins like XRP, TRX, etc., even reached new highs, while traditional coins like CRV, UNI, SUI, etc., have also seen significant increases), indicating that the bull market bubble is similar to previous ones. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the bull market is fraught with risks; I hope everyone exits early, and I wish a smooth bull market in the coming year.