Recently, #比特币 broke through 100,000 US dollars, and the market sentiment was high, but many people were worried during the rise, and did not think that the real violent bull market had arrived. One of the reasons was that the United States entered #降息周期 , and the Federal Reserve said that it would cut 200 basis points within a year, and there were too many uncertainties.

Since 1980, the United States has made six major interest rate cuts. From previous economic cycles, it can be seen that the Federal Reserve rarely achieves #软着陆 . Since World War II, the United States has only achieved a soft landing in 1995. Apart from that, it has inevitably entered an economic recession. In fact, it is not because of the economic recession caused by the interest rate cut, but often the economy has already begun to decline, and then the interest rate cut policy is adopted to stimulate the economy, which creates the phenomenon that the interest rate cut will cause an economic recession. Of course, more people now begin to believe that this time the Federal Reserve is expected to achieve a soft landing, and that Powell's expectation management is very good. The US economy is still strong, but risks must be guarded against.

Historically, after the start of the interest rate cut cycle, #经济危机 is prone to occur, such as the oil crisis in 1981, the Latin American debt crisis in 1985, the Gulf War from 1990 to 1991 and the Japanese bubble, the Internet bubble from 1995 to 2001, the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, and the epidemic from 2019 to 2020. This is also one of the reasons for our concern. We don’t know whether the rising prices will collapse due to external crises.

We cannot ensure that similar situations will not occur in this round of interest rate cuts. There are too many influencing factors, such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, such as the tariffs after Trump took office mentioned in the tweet below, the Sino-US trade war, such as the debt crisis. Many countries are currently facing the problem of increasing debt, and extreme climate problems, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to remain cautiously optimistic! However, risks and opportunities coexist. Once a crisis occurs, it will eventually be accompanied by crisis digestion and economic recovery. Every interest rate cut will inevitably trigger #流动性过剩 in the long term, and funds will flow out to find investments with higher returns. I hope everyone can avoid risks and seize the opportunities of young people. 💪💪💪