Trend Analysis After Bitcoin Breaks $100,000

Today's program will be broadcasted later than usual, mainly due to issues with the Aicoin system, possibly related to the Bitcoin spike. The spike event has put immense pressure on the infrastructure of the crypto space. Today's theme focuses on: After Bitcoin's expected breakthrough of $100,000, is it at its peak? What will be the subsequent trend of altcoins? Yesterday, Bitcoin broke through $100,000 as expected, and all groups cheered. This is the result we have analyzed and predicted multiple times before, rather than a coincidence. About two months ago, we used wave structure analysis to predict that a 4th wave adjustment might occur at the end of October, followed by a 5th wave main upward trend.

Is Bitcoin at its Peak?

After Bitcoin broke through $100,000 yesterday, it quickly spiked to a lower position, leading many to believe that this might be the peak of the current bull market. But from a medium to long-term perspective, is that judgment reasonable?

Analysis of the Reasons and Form of the Spike

  1. Ascending Flag Pattern
    The current trend shows a possibility of a downward movement at the top of an ascending flag pattern. From the 4-hour level, Bitcoin has formed a crab pattern, typically retracing to the 618 area from the 886 position, followed by a drop. $105,000 is indeed a technical retracement point.

  2. Dynamics of Institutions and Large Holders
    Data shows that many large holders have recently been taking profits, withdrawing USDT from exchanges, and some have even converted it directly to fiat currency. Sun Yuchen recently purchased Ethereum at an average price of $3,500 and sold it at $3,900, demonstrating the precision of swing trading.

Medium to Long-Term Indicator Analysis

To determine whether the bull market has peaked, we need to analyze multiple medium to long-term indicators comprehensively:

  1. MVRV Indicator
    The current MVRV score is 3, still a long way from the historical high of 14.77, showing no peak signals yet.

  2. Rainbow Indicator
    The current Bitcoin price is near the boundary between the 'relatively cheap' and 'consider investing' ranges, still a favorable entry point.

  3. Golden Ratio Chen Number
    Golden ratio predictions indicate that this bull market could reach prices of 2 times or 1.6 times, with current distances from this goal still available.

  4. Two-Year MA Crown Layer Statement Indicator
    Although Bitcoin's price has entered a higher position, it usually touches the top area multiple times, and a clear top signal has yet to be reached.

Bitcoin's Upward Momentum

Drivers of Spot and Contracts

The main driving force behind Bitcoin's price rise may come from leverage and contracts, rather than purely from spot buying.

  1. Contract Open Interest and Funding Rate
    Current contract open interest has reached a historical high, while the funding rate has also hit a new peak. This indicates that leveraged trading has played an important role in the recent rise.

  2. Intent Behind the Spike
    Yesterday's spike may have been the actions of market makers cleaning up leverage to rebalance market structure. After the spike, open interest quickly returned to a high level, demonstrating market resilience.

Pause of the Altcoin Frenzy

The recent reversal of Bitcoin's dominance index suggests that the short-term frenzy of altcoins may come to an end. If Bitcoin's price continues to climb to $110,000 or even $120,000, altcoins may enter a short-term adjustment period.

  1. Long-Term Holding
    Focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, a dollar-cost averaging strategy can be chosen to buy on dips.

  2. Swing Trading
    For hot altcoins, short-term operations can be conducted during high volatility periods, but stop-loss must be set.

Conclusion

The spike after Bitcoin broke through $100,000 was not an accident but a normal market behavior to clean up leverage. From a medium to long-term perspective, Bitcoin still has the potential to break higher price levels, while the frenzy of altcoins may pause in the short term, waiting for a new round of upward opportunities.

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