Macro interpretation:
Fed policy and economic data: Tonight at 21:15, the US November ADP employment change data will be released, which is expected to increase by 150,000. Previously, the ADP employment increased by 233,000 in October. If the data is higher than expected, it may rekindle optimism about Friday's non-farm payrolls data and cause gold prices and BTC to fall.
At 23:00 tonight, the US November ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) will be released, which is expected to be 55.5. This data will provide the market with the latest developments in the US service industry.
At 02:45 tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be invited to be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by the New York Times. In his last speech in November, Powell made hawkish remarks, saying that the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates because the job market is solid and the inflation rate is still above the 2% target. If Powell sends hawkish signals again, it may stimulate the rise of the US dollar and trigger a new round of gold selling, which will put pressure on the US stock and crypto markets.
At 03:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions. This will provide the market with the latest status of the US economy.
A series of economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials tonight will have a significant impact on the US dollar index, spot gold, and the cryptocurrency market. We need to closely monitor Federal Reserve policy trends and US economic data and market performance.
Today's main asset performance:
The US dollar index has shown relatively stable short-term performance. According to the latest data, the dollar index is around 106.55, with a slight increase of 0.29%. This reflects global confidence in the US financial market and the trend of buying dollar-denominated assets. At the same time, the exchange rates of the yuan, euro, and yen against the dollar have all depreciated, while the dollar maintains a strong position. Additionally, the market generally expects a cooling of Trump-related trades, but the continuous breakthroughs of offshore yuan show the complexity and uncertainty of the market.
The price of spot gold remains stable, currently around $2,640 per ounce. However, in November, the price of gold fell by 3.41%, marking the largest monthly decline in 14 months. This downward trend is related to the increase in global risk appetite, with equity assets and the cryptocurrency market becoming new favorites for safe-haven funds. If tonight's US ADP employment data exceeds expectations, it may further suppress gold prices.
The BTC market has recently shown relatively volatile performance, with the current price oscillating around $96,500. In November, BTC increased by 37.42%, with a volatility of 47.12%, and trading volume effectively expanded. Some institutions believe that if BTC breaks through the $100,000 mark in the future, the market will gradually exhibit ETH breaking historical highs, a broad market rally, and the gradual recognition of the market's main trends.
Analysis of South Korean kimchi negative premium:
Last night, following the South Korean president's martial law announcement, some platforms in South Korea saw BTC trading at over 30% negative premiums. This is more of a regional event impacting a single market, primarily due to a significant plunge in the won. Additionally, the current market balance is too low, and the liquidity of smaller exchanges can easily lead to such situations.
There are actually quite a few similar cases. Many should still remember the disconnection of the U-price in October 2018, which saw the BTC priced in CNY soar, but the fluctuations in some dollar-priced large exchanges abroad were much smaller. Similar situations occurred in Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2018-2019, where multiple premiums appeared.
BTC Analysis:
The BTC four-hour chart is running along an upward trend line. The current trend line short-term support roughly coincides with trend indicators, currently operating around 94,000-94,500. If it remains above this level, it leans towards a bullish run; if it falls below, it leans towards a bearish run. The main chip area is still below $91,000. Mid-term support references are 87,000 and 85,000, while upward resistance references are the recent high of $99,588 and historical highs.
The daily death cross adjustment was first proposed by us at 99,000, during which there were also instances of falling to around 90,790 and 93,580. This viewpoint has persisted for several days, but currently, it is roughly in a range oscillation without breaking previous levels, and there is hope for a pullback. However, the form of the pullback may not necessarily be a direct decline. Since November 29, the recent rebound highs and decline lows have also been shifting downward, which is another form. Additionally, there is the method of oscillation repair to complete the indicator signals.
