Original Crypto-Nancheng 50,000-hour trading worker December 4, 2024
Positive and Negative Sentiment Trends:
On-chain data shows that sentiment towards digital assets has been low recently, even for those that have experienced historic gains, including Bitcoin (BTC), XRP (XRP), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Stellar (XLM), with the recent trend of the positive to negative sentiment ratio (see chart below).
As the historic rally in altcoins has yet to slow down, the frenzy from a week ago is showing signs of trader fatigue. Even as crypto majors like XRP (+444%), Cardano (+280%) and Stellar (+512%) all posted all-time 30-day gains, retail traders appear to be getting a bit calmer after taking profits from the earlier rally in late November.
Historically, markets move in the opposite direction of popular expectations, and the silence on these caps should be seen as an encouraging sign that FOMO won’t interfere with any further climbs… at least not yet.
Where do we go from here with XRP?
Our first entry price was in the 0.5-0.55 spot range. When we entered the market, we said that we were planning to hold it for the long term. The current highest increase has been 430%+, so the key question is, can we continue to hold it now?
The trend is interesting considering the sharp price increases seen for XRP, Cardano, and Stellar. Generally, when such increases occur, positive commentary tends to surge, as was the case with Bitcoin early last month when Trump won the US election.
Historically, digital assets tend to move in the opposite direction of popular expectations, which means that whenever bullish sentiment becomes too strong, price corrections are likely to occur.
Despite the surge in prices, investors in XRP and other currencies are not getting too excited, so their gains may still have room to continue.
Another thing worth noting, however, is the ratio of positive to negative sentiment, as social media sentiment can sometimes shift quickly, especially when breaking news breaks. A spike in this indicator is naturally not a good sign.
My personal opinion here is that we can hold the spot of xrp for a while. If your xrp occupies more than 50% of your total position, it is recommended that you come out of the 6th floor or more.
ADA detailed analysis
Mainly because many friends have been asking about this currency recently. Let me briefly explain here that Ada has seen a price increase of more than 280% since November 5, and the first-layer token has risen to a 32-month high of $1.32. The current price is $1.22
On Dec. 3, ADA’s futures open interest (OI) surged to a 40-month high of $1.18 billion, according to data from CoinGlass.
Open interest is the total number of open contracts in the derivatives market. An increase in open interest accompanies an increase in prices, indicating confidence in an upward trend.
ADA’s spot volume and net flow data are in line with the bullish performance, showing an increase in trading and exchange inflows over the past 24 hours.
Data from IntoTheBlock shows that the number of whale addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA has increased dramatically throughout November. In the past week, these large investors have accumulated approximately $276 million worth of ADA.
This buying seems to be the impetus for ADA to break through the psychological level of $1.30 as large holders of ADA believe that higher prices will be in the future.
Cardano’s average coin age metric provides valuable insights into the behavior of token holders. While ADA’s stellar performance in November sparked massive profit-taking activity, there has been a clear shift in this pattern over the past seven days, as shown in the chart below.
The upward trend of the indicator shows that long-term holders prefer to maintain their existing positions. This means that investor behavior may once again shift from profit-taking to accumulation.
ADA finds support on the downside
With ADA price trading at $1.227, traders appear to have established a strong demand zone around $1.20.
Data from IntoTheBlock shows that between $1.17 and $1.21, more than 79,580 ADA addresses have transferred 197.86 million ADA tokens at an average price of $1.19.
From the perspective of the disk
ADA has broken out of a multi-year downtrend. The weekly chart below shows that the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at $0.76 is another strong support level for ADA’s price.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD ) indicator continues to trend upward in the positive zone.
