The idea that Terra Luna Classic ($LUNC ) could return to $1 sounds like a pipe dream for investors who lost money in its crash. However, the realities of the cryptocurrency market suggest that this is unlikely. Let's find out why.
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What happened to Terra Luna Classic?
The crash of Terra (LUNA) in May 2022 was one of the biggest shocks in the crypto industry. The UST stablecoin lost its peg to the dollar, causing the price of LUNA to fall from over $100 to less than $0.01. As a result, two versions were created:
1. Terra ($LUNA ) is a new token.
2. Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) is an old token left to the discretion of the community.
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Current situation with LUNC
As of November 2024, LUNC's market cap is still relatively low, with a circulating supply of more than 5.8 trillion tokens. For LUNC to reach $1, its market cap would have to jump to $5.8 trillion, which:
More than 5 times the current capitalization of Bitcoin.
It is unrealistic even for the entire crypto market in the coming years.
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Are there any positives?
1. Token burning programs.
The LUNC community actively supports burning mechanisms that reduce the number of tokens in circulation. Binance and some other exchanges are also participating in this process.
The problem: Even with an aggressive burn rate, it will take decades to reduce the supply from trillions to billions.
2. Developer support.
LUNC still has a group of enthusiasts developing new features, adding DeFi protocols, and trying to restore trust in the network.
Problem: Competition with other blockchains (Ethereum, Solana$SOL ) far exceeds the capabilities of Terra Luna Classic.
3. Speculative interest.
LUNC attracts the attention of traders due to its low price, high volatility and "nostalgia" for the past.
Problem: Speculative interest does not create fundamental value.
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Forecast for 2025
LUNC Price: Even with a significant reduction in tokens in circulation, the price is unlikely to exceed $0.01-$0.05 by the end of 2025.
Real-world scenarios: To reach $1 you need to either burn 99.99% of the tokens or raise a fantastic amount of capital, which is unlikely.
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Is it worth investing?
LUNC can be an interesting speculative investment, but it is definitely not an asset with long-term potential.
Risks:
Lack of fundamental value.
The uncertain future of the ecosystem.
Unrealistic goals like getting back to $1.
Opportunities:
Short-term gains through volatility.
Potential price growth with aggressive token burning.
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Visnovok
Terra Luna Classic getting back to $1 seems more like a dream than a real scenario. However, cryptocurrency is a market of surprises. If LUNC reaches new highs, it will most likely be driven by a wave of speculation rather than fundamental advances. For investors, this is more like playing with fire than a safe investment.
