A Psychological Ceiling: The Limit of USD 98,000
Since November, Bitcoin has faced repeated rejections at the USD 96,000 level, suggesting a psychological and technical barrier at USD 98,000. For investors and traders, overcoming this resistance would not only pave the way towards the symbolic mark of USD 100,000 but could also trigger unprecedented demand, with projections reaching USD 110,000 by early 2025.
Why Does This Level Matter So Much?
Investor Confidence: USD 98,000 is more than a technical level; it represents a critical validation point for new institutional investors. Surpassing this threshold could attract massive capital flows.
Technical Patterns: According to analysts like DonAlt and Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin is in a consolidation range that could persist without significant changes unless it breaks this level.
Macroeconomic Indicators: Bitcoin's correlation with the Global Macro Investor Total Liquidity Index suggests that external factors such as global monetary policy also influence its price.
Impact on Cryptocurrencies
Altcoins on Alert: If Bitcoin surpasses USD 98,000, it could pull major altcoins, like Ethereum and Solana, upward. However, a failure in this attempt could trigger massive sell-offs across the market.
Institutional Demand: Traditionally reluctant institutions could aggressively enter the market if Bitcoin breaks this barrier, further validating cryptocurrencies as alternative assets.
Short-Term Holders (STH): The decrease in sales by STH is a positive sign, but any abrupt profit-taking could trigger a significant correction.
Global Economy: Between Inflation and Decentralization
Bitcoin is not just a speculative asset; it has also become a barometer for macroeconomic concerns:
Inflation and Monetary Policy: With the Federal Reserve increasing global money supply, Bitcoin is expected to absorb up to 10% of this excess, consolidating its role as an inflation-hedging asset.
Geopolitics: The perception of Bitcoin as a tool to circumvent sanctions or monetary restrictions could also intensify, especially in a context of geopolitical uncertainty driven by Trump policies.
The Network Effect: A Global Boost or a Ticking Time Bomb?
The crypto ecosystem is at a crossroads. If Bitcoin surpasses USD 98,000, it could drive unprecedented global adoption, attracting new users and increasing its relevance in the financial system. However, the risks are also clear:
Volatility: High volatility could deter new investors and cause a sudden collapse if technical levels are not sustained.
Regulations: Governments could intensify controls over the market, especially if Bitcoin challenges traditional fiat currencies.