12.3 Market Analysis

Recently, the BTC market has experienced significant volatility, with frequent alternation between rallies and consolidations, presenting an overall pattern of wide fluctuations at high levels. For conservative traders, it is essential to focus on key support and resistance levels during this phase, using hourly trends as the main reference to determine market direction and flexibly adjust strategies.

Short-term Market Analysis: Wide fluctuations, frequent switching between high and low levels, trending towards correction

Currently, BTC is in a high-level consolidation state, and the daily level fluctuations have not exited the range. There are clear differences between bulls and bears in the market, and in the short term, prices may oscillate repeatedly between support and resistance.

Reference Resistance Level: 96300-97200

Reference Support Level: 92900-91600

If the price remains stable above 94000, there may be further rebound space in the short term; however, if it falls below 94000, one should be cautious of continued downside risks.

Trading Mindset: Illusions and Calmness in a Bull Market

Retail investors in a bull market often have the following feeling:

"The altcoins I bought are not rising, while I watch other altcoins soar. When I chase after them, they start to decline, and just as I cut my losses, they rise again."

This is actually an illusion of chasing highs and cutting losses. In a bull market, market sentiment can be easily swayed by short-term fluctuations, so it is crucial to remain calm and avoid chasing highs or panic selling. Patience in waiting for market corrections will allow for more stable opportunity grasping.

Macroeconomic Impact: External Factors Cannot Be Ignored

Recently, the U.S. government plans to sell $2 billion worth of BTC, which may exert some selling pressure on the market. Additionally, U.S. stocks continue to rise, the dollar strengthens, and the exchange rate of the yuan depreciates to 7.3. It is worth noting that Trump has also threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries that do not use the dollar; these external factors will indirectly affect the market.

Conclusion: Wide Fluctuating Market, Maintain Calmness and Patience

In the current context of heightened market fluctuations and frequent volatility, one should remain calm and avoid chasing highs and cutting losses. At the same time, it is crucial to closely monitor changes in macroeconomic factors and prepare to respond based on technical analysis. Only by finding the rhythm within the fluctuations can one remain undefeated in the market.