Good evening, brothers! The recent market is quite good, especially the trends of Bitcoin and some altcoins. First, let's take a look at some macroeconomic news.
1. Important economic data releases: The United States will release several important data points, including the unemployment rate for November, ADP employment data, and non-farm payroll data. These data may affect market sentiment and could provide some clues for predicting market trends.
2. The Federal Reserve's economic report: The Federal Reserve will also release its Beige Book on the U.S. economy, and Fed Chair Powell will be interviewed. According to CME data, the market expects a 65% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed on December 18, while the probability of maintaining the rate is 34%.
BTC's dominance is declining, and the season for altcoins may be approaching.
Let's talk about Bitcoin first. The trend of this round of bull market is indeed different from previous ones. Bitcoin's market share is declining, and the performance of altcoins is becoming increasingly strong. For instance, XRP's market cap has quintupled in the past five weeks, even surpassing established projects like SOL! This is surprising, as XRP is a relatively old project and shouldn't have surged so much.
Other older altcoins are also performing strongly, such as XLM, ADA, etc. Even some early DeFi projects are starting to recover.
Moreover, some emerging coins are also performing well, such as AI-related coins, RWA coins, and Meme coins, which have been continuously rising without pause. Perhaps this round of altcoin bulls is just such a pattern, as Bitcoin's market share has dropped from 60% to 54%.
Capital flow and market trends.
As Bitcoin's dominance declines, capital in the market is starting to flow towards tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem and some lesser-known altcoins.
One characteristic of these tokens is that after a long period of consolidation and stagnation, there are not many retail investors holding them, and the control by institutions and large holders is significant. Therefore, even if the market cap is already large, the resistance to price rises is not strong.
Compared to before, this cycle has also seen some new variables: such as altcoins supported by VC and Meme coins, which may disrupt the original capital rotation to some extent. But overall, the market cycles and trend changes will not be too significant.
However, the risks in the market are also increasing. Currently, there is no strong 'ecological narrative', and the rise in coin prices mainly relies on capital-driven movements, so we must also be wary of possible market corrections. Especially considering that the number of altcoins and the overall market value are much higher than before, this market, which purely relies on capital to push up prices, may have certain bubbles.
Core strategy in a bull market: Patience in holding positions is key.
In such a market environment, the core strategy in a bull market is to maintain patience. Specifically, the following principles can be followed:
Do not rush to change positions: Unless you have already made sufficient profits, it is not advisable to frequently adjust positions. Maintaining patience is key to achieving long-term gains.
Maintain patience: The overall trend in a bull market is upward, and the bottoms will continue to rise. So as long as you hold quality assets and wait patiently, you will ultimately receive good returns.
There are countless reasons for the rise: There are always various reasons and signals when the market is rising, but to seize the big cycle's upward opportunities, do not frequently change positions due to short-term fluctuations.
Coins to avoid in the short term:
Outdated projects with no innovation and no market appeal. These projects may not have any new developments and pose higher investment risks.
Projects with a high unlocking ratio. Once the token supply is released, the price may fluctuate significantly, rising quickly but also falling fast.
Outdated projects with poor liquidity and uncertain funding. These coins are difficult to attract new capital, and their price increases are limited.
Invest in emerging projects to capture potential stocks.
Now is a good time to invest in new projects and new concepts. As different sectors break their ceilings, many related altcoins may experience explosive growth. For example, some older coins that have performed well recently, like EOS, FIL, LTC, etc., have rebounded by about four times from their lows. If these large-cap projects can rebound so strongly, the potential for smaller market cap projects is even more promising.
Focus on leading projects in the industry:
Meme sector: Focus on leading projects like PEPE, DOGE, SHIB, PNT, etc.
DeFi sector: Focus on UNI, AAVE, LINK, CRV, ENS, etc.
Public chain sector: Focus on SOL, SUI, ALGO, etc.
Opportunities in the Ethereum ecosystem and resilient altcoins.
Ethereum is currently in a state of slow oscillation and upward movement in the market, making it a good time to look for those resilient popular altcoins. By buying these coins in batches, one can achieve higher returns when Ethereum's price rises rapidly.
Final reminder:
Even if you missed out on popular coins like XLM, XRP, ADA, it's okay. Stay focused, seize market opportunities, or you might miss out on even more potential coins.
Three don'ts and one should in a bull market:
Do not frequently change positions.
Do not frequently cut losses.
Do not play contracts.
Learn to take profits at the right time.
