Table of contents:
1. Review of BTC's weekly trend and technical analysis;
2. An overview of the crypto market, quickly read the rise and fall of popular currencies/capital flows of sectors in the week;
3. The inflow and outflow of spot ETF funds, with the inflow scale setting a monthly record;
4. The BTC balance on the exchange hit a new record low, with only three companies having sufficient reserves;
5. The weighted funding rate of BTC contracts fell, but remained at a medium-high level;
1.BTC weekly trend review and technical analysis:
Last week, BTC as a whole fell first and then rose, showing a volatile market, falling all the way from US$99,000 to around 90,866, which was in line with our previous prediction that the support position was below US$91,000 in chip distribution, and then rebounded to around US$98,713 before falling back again.
The trend indicator at the 4-hour level changed signals twice. It first turned to short after falling below $95,000, and then turned to long as the market rebounded to $97,000. It can also be verified that the market is in the range of 91,000-99,000, and there is no continuity of the trend. The daily line still maintains a dead cross state. The short-term support continues to refer to below $91,000, and the medium-term support is around $87,000 and $85,000. The upper short-term resistance refers to the recent high of 99,588 and the historical high.
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/capital flows in the sector in the past week
In the past week, the crypto market was divided into concept sectors, and the scale of capital inflow was concentrated in several major areas such as Arbitrum ecology, Solana ecology, Optimism ecology and Ethereum ecology. The first three sectors had a scale of more than 1.3 billion US dollars, and the Ethereum ecology and Avalanche ecology had a net inflow of more than 400 million US dollars. In the past week, many currencies in the above concept sectors have seen a large rotation rise. For example, tokens such as VIRTUAL and ENS.
In addition, we need to note that the main reason for the large amount of net capital inflows in the top three concept sectors is the large-scale issuance of USDC stablecoin with a scale of US$1 billion. If these impacts are excluded, there is still a net inflow of US$300-400 million, which is also at the top of the list.
3. Inflow and outflow of spot ETF funds.
The monthly inflow of funds to Bitcoin spot ETFs has grown rapidly, reaching $6.5 billion, a new historical peak, far exceeding the previous monthly record. The continued rise in Bitcoin prices has successfully attracted a large number of investors to get involved. Especially on Wall Street, Bitcoin prices have repeatedly set new highs, allowing investors in Bitcoin ETFs to reap rich returns. Now that the $100,000 price mark is just around the corner, the market's enthusiasm continues to rise and increase. Institutional investors who have received huge returns this year may further increase their Bitcoin allocation ratio next year.
Data shows that the total holdings of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF chain have reached approximately 1.132 million BTC, accounting for more than 5.7% of the current BTC supply, and the value of its on-chain holdings is approximately US$103.157 billion.
The surge in capital inflows and the increase in holdings indicate that the market demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs is extremely strong. The continued rise in prices has attracted more investors, especially in Wall Street, the core financial area, showing that the market has increased confidence in Bitcoin. The satisfaction and returns of risk managers mean that their decisions have received positive feedback from the market. The breakthrough in holdings and the increase in value further reflect the activity of the market and the importance investors attach to it.
4. The on-site BTC balance hit a new historical low, and only three exchanges have reserves that can meet buyer demand.
Data shows that the balance of Bitcoin in cryptocurrency exchanges has fallen to a historical low, with a decrease of more than 126,000 in the past month. The number of Bitcoins available for purchase has dropped sharply. This means that Bitcoin that can be directly obtained on the exchange has become extremely scarce in the market, which may have an impact on trading activity and prices. The current situation is very different from the trend in the middle of the year. At that time, there was a sudden inflow that temporarily enriched the reserves of the exchange. But this time, there was no such inventory growth, which further exacerbated the supply tightening trend. The situation in the middle of the year is in sharp contrast to the current situation. The current supply tension may cause a major change in the balance of supply and demand in the market.
The crypto market, led by Bitcoin, is being driven by favorable factors, which indicates that it is expected to continue to grow in the coming year. On-chain analysis shows that long-term holders are often regarded as a stabilizing force in the market. They firmly hold their positions, limiting the flow of Bitcoin into exchanges and reducing liquidity. Favorable catalysts bring hope for market growth, but the firm holding behavior of long-term holders has affected the liquidity of the market to a certain extent.
Only three major exchanges (Bitfinex, Binance, and Coinbase) claim to have sufficient Bitcoin reserves to meet buyer demand. Smaller exchanges are facing increasing challenges in maintaining liquidity, which may lead to more volatile price fluctuations. The relative advantages of major exchanges and the difficulties faced by smaller exchanges may change the trading landscape of the market and affect price fluctuations.
5. The weighted funding rate of BTC contracts has declined, but is still at a medium-to-high level.
According to the contract data, since September 14, the BTC contract funding rate has maintained a positive level, that is, more pays short, from the mid-November level of 50,000 to the current level of 20,000, which has fallen compared with the previous period, but is still at a medium-high level. This shows that the market FOMO sentiment has slightly decreased, and the funding rate is gradually running towards a healthy state. On the other hand, due to the recent repeated rise and fall of BTC, some speculative funds have switched to the hot spots of altcoins, and the gradual intervention of short arbitrage funds in the early stage has also played a certain role in regulating the rate.
