In the Bitcoin bull market, price fluctuations are intense and frequent. This article will explore historical Bitcoin retracements, revealing the risks and investment psychology behind them. This article is sourced from a piece by David Canellis, organized and translated by the Plain Language Blockchain. (Background: A guide for veterans in a bull market: the higher the leverage, the sooner the profit-taking; clear out potential coins at once) (Context: Reviewing the past four years of the crypto market, at which stage of the bull market are we now?) Bitcoin's dramatic volatility has long taught us to 'go with the flow.' We seem to have become accustomed to the expectation that even in a bull market that is unstoppable, we are bound to encounter significant pullbacks that shatter our hopes, dreams, and wallet balances. Therefore, we all find it completely understandable that Bitcoin could suddenly plunge 50% while sprinting towards six figures or even higher. Is this expectation reasonable? First, it must be clarified that Bitcoin indeed has a 'tradition' of crashing about 80% from the peak of a bull market to the trough of a bear market. Since Bitcoin first experienced a significant increase in 2011, this has been the case in almost every cycle. However, this article does not discuss pullbacks during bear markets (for that, you can refer to our previous analysis). Instead, we will focus on pullbacks during bull markets, just like the situation we are currently experiencing. The chart below shows Bitcoin's price performance over six different time spans, ranging from three days to three months, presented in a rolling manner from the cycle's starting point (trough) to the historical peak (summit). Each line represents a time span. For example, the deep purple line represents the percentage difference between each daily low and the opening price three days ago, while the green line represents a similar comparison over a three-month period. The dashed line at the bottom represents the 50% retracement level. As shown, during the bull market from August 2015 to December 2017, such a significant retracement never occurred. During this period, the largest pullback happened near the end of September 2017, dropping 40% within two weeks. However, in the subsequent bull market from 2018 to 2021, there were three instances of pullbacks exceeding 50%. One of these occurred in March 2020 due to the pandemic-induced market crash, during which the stock market experienced a series of 'Black Mondays.' Bitcoin fell by 50% or more across almost all time spans, with only the three-month span slightly below 50%, at 47%. The other two significant pullbacks occurred in May and July 2021, when Bitcoin fell from over $60,000 to $30,000. However, in the following four months, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to nearly $69,000, a new high. This pullback was relatively mild, with the most significant correction of the bull market occurring in the first week of August. Bitcoin dropped 30% across multiple time frames, falling from over $70,000 in June to a low of $49,200. Of course, this does not mean that Bitcoin has lost its volatility. I still believe that future trends will remain tumultuous. It is worth noting that historically, the most severe pullbacks often occur at the end of a bull market. Therefore, the longer a bull market lasts without significant pullbacks, the more uncertain the future trend becomes, which also contributes to the unique 'excitement' of investing in Bitcoin. Related reports: A look at which 'old altcoins' have reached new highs in this bull market? Traps for new investors: Leaving the bull market is difficult, but preserving profits is key. Beneath the surface of the bull market, the speculative landscape has changed: entertainment value determines future trends. 'Be prepared for danger: Reviewing the moments of collapse in Bitcoin's history,' this article was first published by BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).

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