Spot is ready for exit when the market weakens
Macro
SPX S&P's view remains unchanged. It is expected to stabilize at 4380 on the top and 4280 on the bottom. Gold continues to see a correction. Last night, BlackRock submitted an ETF application for ETH. In addition, the ETF receipt of the trillion-dollar market value institution on the 17th is expected to be good news for the currency market in the medium and long term.
Technical aspects
1. With the stimulation of the news and the hype of expectations, BTC came to the 3.8 position that it has been waiting for more than half a month yesterday. It was also mentioned every day. Last night's live broadcast also mentioned again that the upper target is around 3.75-3.8. This large-scale position must be participated in once, whether it is right or wrong. At the same time, it also stepped back to yesterday's key strength and weakness. I was afraid of the pin and emphasized from 3.55 to 3.54. Now at the 3.65 position, no matter long or short, only part of the position is left. The spot notified by ETH1740, no matter how the ETF hypes it, is usually postponed first, so this part of the spot must follow the market at any time. Copycat synchronous execution
2. BTC said yesterday that the trend has not changed. The daily structure broke through and opened 3.6, which means it is out of the range. The idea of breaking through is to rush up and then fall back. Now there are the last two steps of pullback and fall back. Remember the idea since the rise in the quiet zone on the 26th. After 3.6, it can be expected to be the top and make a correction. The spot should also be ready to move at any time after this. 3.8 is also our goal. The following 4-4.2 is a heavy pressure. After that, the position between 4.8 is a position that can be used for fomo. The highest position in previous years is 0.618. The spot is matched with the contract. The rise and fall are not urgent. The spot is weak and the contract is reversed.
Medium to long term: 4 4.2 4.8 support 3.4 3.32
Intraday short-term: 3.85 3.78 support 3.62 3.54 3.47
How will the market develop in the future?
Today, although the market trend is extremely "monkey market". But overall, the crypto market has ushered in a bull market scene of "thousands of coins rising together". Coingecko data shows that the total market value of cryptocurrencies has exceeded 1.43 trillion US dollars, up 2.8% in 24 hours. Crypto users' trading enthusiasm has increased significantly. Today's panic and greed index has reached 69, with a level of greed.
After the sharp rise and fall, where will Bitcoin go next? Can it hit the $40,000 mark?
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said, "According to SEC insiders, the SEC will approve the Bitcoin spot ETF before Thanksgiving." The tweet said that although this is within the range of possibility (consistent with the prediction, that is, approving multiple at the same time), the authenticity of the source cannot be confirmed.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart pointed out that even if the SEC approves the spot Bitcoin ETF, the actual launch of the Bitcoin ETF will still take a month.
Looking ahead, the approval of a spot ETF could lead to further growth in the value of Bitcoin, especially when the halving event takes place in late April 2024. If we take a stab at it, we could be in for a historic bull run.
"The cryptocurrency rally appears to be overdone," said JPMorgan analysts, who are cautious about the crypto market going forward.
Analysts point to two major factors that appear to have contributed to the cryptocurrency rally over the past month. The first major factor is the potential for spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S., which could bring new capital to the cryptocurrency market and such approval could be seen as a win for the crypto industry and a defeat for the SEC. The second major factor is the SEC’s defeat in the Ripple and Grayscale legal cases, which is thought to potentially lead to a more lenient approach from the SEC in the future.
But JPMorgan analysts said it remains uncertain whether cryptocurrency regulation will be relaxed in the future. "Given the extent to which the cryptocurrency industry is unregulated, it is unclear whether regulatory tightening in the industry will be significantly reduced," the analysts said. "U.S. cryptocurrency industry regulations remain unresolved, and we do not believe that U.S. lawmakers will change their stance as a result of the two legal cases mentioned above, especially with the FTX fraud case still fresh in people's minds."
Now that market expectations for ETF approval are growing stronger, is the current decline a correction during the rise, or the end of the rising market? Has the new bull market cycle begun?
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