Trade War 2.0 Impact:

Significant event: After Trump took office, the US icon raised tariffs on Chinese goods.

Impact: The price of Chinese goods in the United States has increased, the circulation rate has decreased, and exports have been impacted.

Economic growth rate forecast:

Forecast: China's economic growth rate in 2025 will drop from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5%.

Countermeasures: China may implement a policy of RMB devaluation to offset the impact of high tariffs on export goods.

China Stock Market Outlook:

Forecast: Despite the pressure of the trade war, the adverse effects on Chinese corporate profits and market valuations will be alleviated by government policies.

Investment strategy: Goldman Sachs recommends increasing holdings of Chinese stocks, especially new energy and semiconductor-related industries.

Real estate industry forecast:

Current situation: The number of new construction starts, land sales revenue, new home sales and completed construction site data have all dropped sharply.

Forecast: The real estate industry will drag down China's GDP by about 2 percentage points in 2025.

Policy Outlook: If more loose policies are introduced, housing prices in first-tier cities are expected to stabilize.

Domestic consumption and employment rate:

Key factors: Improving the employment rate is crucial to China's consumption recovery.

Forecast: In 2025, the income of some Chinese workers will rise, job opportunities will increase, and the employment rate will improve significantly.

Debt resolution and improvement of the employment market:

China's government investment: Investing 10 trillion US dollars to resolve local debts, reduce the pressure on local governments, and promote capital investment and economic recovery.

Company collection improvement: The collection of companies that undertake government business will improve.

Consumption stimulus policy:

Government subsidies: The Chinese government provides 300 billion yuan in special subsidies to stimulate consumption by exchanging old for new.

Subsidy scope: Covers areas such as car replacement and home appliance replacement.

Economic positive cycle:

Viewpoint: As consumer income increases and consumer confidence increases, China's economy is expected to move towards a positive cycle. #ETH持续飙升