Original title: (SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Final Stretch)
Source: SignalPlus
Last week was the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, and the market volume was light, and the overall consolidation pattern was maintained. The U.S. stock market is about to make history again. 2024 will be one of the best years in history, and the return rate has reached double-digit highs in 5 of the past 6 years.
Market breadth remains supportive, with the 52-week equity high/low spread still looking healthy and the uptrend intact, while the VIX is trending down, while calm has returned to the Treasury market after Trump announced Scott Bessent will be Treasury Secretary, with the 10-year yield down nearly 35 basis points from its October high.
In addition to his so-called "pro-crypto" stance, Bessent is also a fiscal hawk and a supporter of an independent Federal Reserve. His 3-3-3 plan (reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP, increasing real GDP growth to 3%, and increasing energy production by 3 million barrels per day) has brought relief to the US fixed income market, and the yield curve premium has stabilized at its current level since his nomination.
While there are still questions about his core arguments, journalists studying his early speeches found that he is “long-term bullish” on gold due to continued central bank accumulation. Will this have a spillover effect on Bitcoin, especially with the recent discussion on strategic reserve portfolios? The next 4 years will undoubtedly be very interesting, to say the least.
Traders will return to a busy week with the last non-farm payrolls release of the year. Despite the nascent concerns about a pickup in inflation, the market still sees around a 65% chance of a rate cut, but forward rate cut expectations for 2025-2027 have been significantly reduced given the strong economic conditions. On the employment data, the market expects the headline employment figure to rebound to around +160k, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4.3%. There is also a chance that the final data will be lower than expected given the weakness in recent PMI surveys and high-frequency employment data, but risk sentiment is likely to remain positive unless there is a very unexpected result.
Optimism remains widespread in the cryptocurrency market, but the focus this week is on Ripple. XRP surged an astonishing 73% on expectations that the government will drop its long-standing lawsuit. Becoming the third largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. In anticipation of this development, whale addresses have been actively buying (and now selling) XRP over the past month.
The current rally is mainly concentrated in the mainstream coins (excluding ETH), with BTC leading the way, while altcoins are currently still struggling to return to January highs. While the recent success of L2 and protocol transformation blockchains (such as Hyperliquid) still dominates the cryptocurrency market’s attention, we are seeing some improvement in Ethereum through the inflows of the ETH ETF, which last Friday exceeded $330 million. , will we see more secondary mainstream currencies being driven to rebound before the end of the year?
Regardless, fundamental crypto indicators remain positive, with stablecoin market caps finally surpassing Terra-Luna highs. Stablecoins are often the first stop for most fiat users into the crypto market, and higher market caps (which are fixed-price and therefore driven purely by volume) indicate greater mainstream participation.
Will the new year see faster growth as investors invest more new money? Hope so!
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