Will the RMB depreciate again in 2025?
Two days ago, foreign media CNBC published a news report titled "Chinese yuan to hit record lows as U.S. tariff threat mounts, investment banks forecast".
The core point can be summarized in one sentence: next year, in 2025, the RMB will face the largest depreciation since 2004. CNBC counted the forecasts of 13 investment banks for the RMB and predicted that by the end of 2025, the average exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the US dollar will weaken to 7.51, which will be the weakest level since 2004.
Among them:
UBS: 7.30 by the end of 2024, 7.60 by the end of 2025
BNP Paribas: 7.70 by the end of 2025
Barclays: 7.25 by the end of 2024, 7.50 by the end of 2025
J.P. Morgan: 7.30 by the end of 2024, 7.50 by the end of 2025
Goldman Sachs: 7.25 by the end of 2024, 7.50 by the end of 2025
Macquarie Group: 7.25 by the end of 2024, 7.38 by the end of 2025 =Economics): 7.30 at the end of 2024, 8.00 at the end of 2025
Nomura: 7.50 for August 2025
ING: 7.20 at the end of 2024, 7.30 at the end of 2025
US President-elect Trump said on the social media platform Truth Social that he would impose an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods entering the United States. In addition, during the campaign, he has promised to impose tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods. According to Mitul Kotecha, head of Asian foreign exchange and macro strategy at Barclays Bank, if a 60% tariff is imposed on all Chinese goods, the renminbi needs to depreciate to 8.42 US dollars to fully reflect this impact.
