This month, major financial events have occurred one after another, which will have a profound impact on the global financial market:
First, on Wednesday, December 4, the US November ADP employment data will be released at 21:15. As an important forward-looking indicator of the US employment market, the changes in ADP employment data can often provide key clues for the subsequent overall employment situation. All parties in the market pay close attention to this. Traders will adjust their investment strategies based on data fluctuations, and investors will also get a glimpse of the vitality and resilience of the US economy.
Second, at 03:00 a.m. on Thursday, December 5, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions. This Beige Book is like a "physical examination report" of the U.S. economy, detailing the Fed's in-depth research and analysis of economic conditions in various regions. Its content covers the development trends of many industries, business conditions, consumer confidence and other information, which can provide a detailed basis for the Fed's subsequent monetary policy formulation and provide market participants with a comprehensive window to understand the U.S. macroeconomic landscape. At 21:30 on the same day, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week will also be announced. This data reflects the real-time dynamics of the U.S. labor market and is an important indicator for measuring the stability and activity of the employment market. Its fluctuations will directly affect market sentiment and asset price trends.
Third, at 21:30 on Friday, December 6, the U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data for November will be released together. Non-farm payrolls data can be called the "barometer" of the job market, and its large changes often trigger sharp fluctuations in the financial market, whether it is the stock market, bond market or foreign exchange market. The unemployment rate data directly reflects the pressure of the U.S. job market. The two together constitute the core elements of assessing the health of the U.S. economy and have an undeniable influence on the direction of the global economic pattern.
Fourth, at 21:30 on Wednesday, December 11, the US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was released. CPI data is a key indicator for measuring inflation levels, which is directly related to the Federal Reserve's choice of monetary policy path. If the CPI data exceeds expectations, the market may expect the Federal Reserve to adopt a tighter monetary policy to curb inflation; conversely, if the data is lower than expected, it may trigger expectations of slower economic growth and looser monetary policies, which in turn will have a completely different impact on the prices of various assets.
Fifth, at 3:00 a.m. on Thursday, December 19, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be announced, followed by a monetary policy press conference at 3:30 a.m. by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is the “super baton” of the global financial market. Its decision to raise, lower or maintain interest rates will trigger a repricing of global asset prices. Powell’s speech at the press conference is an important basis for the market to interpret the Fed’s policy intentions. Investors will listen carefully to every word, looking for clues about the future direction of monetary policy, so as to adjust their investment portfolios and risk preferences.
Crypto Market Outlook:
With the end of Thanksgiving, the US economic power is gradually recovering and will soon show its influence in the market. In the field of encryption, if Bitcoin ETF can continue the current trend of capital inflow, the price of Bitcoin is expected to break through the $100,000 mark before the end of the year. This expectation is like a heavy bomb, stimulating the enthusiasm and expectations of market participants. Important data such as non-farm and unemployment rates will be released this week. The performance of these data will have a subtle connection and interaction with the encryption market. At the same time, ETFs and encryption-related US stocks have also become the focus of market attention. Bitcoin has been adjusted below the $100,000 mark for many days, and the market is waiting for an opportunity for further breakthroughs. Ethereum took over from Bitcoin last week and achieved a sharp rebound. Its momentum to recover lost ground is strong, showing that market funds are accelerating into the Ethereum market. In the current spot bull market environment, bulls have an absolute advantage and drive prices steadily up. The overall performance of the options market is relatively stable, but the situation of block trading and subtle changes in market interest rates deserve close attention from investors. These factors may inadvertently change the short-term trend of the market.
The market does not need to have excessive concerns or high expectations for the upcoming Fed interest rate decision. Judging from the current market's general expectations, the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike in December is relatively high and has basically been digested by the market in advance, so the direct impact on the market after its implementation is relatively limited. However, if the Fed makes unexpected moves in its interest rate decision, such as an unexpected rate hike or policy shift, it may cause severe market turmoil and repricing. Investors need to be highly vigilant and make response plans in advance.
#微软比特币投资投票案 #NFT市场回暖 #ETH持续飙升 #ADA、ENA大额解锁 #XRP解锁新趋势 $BTC $ETH
