Author: Socra, Golden Finance
On December 2, XRP's market value surpassed USDT and Solana, ranking third in the cryptocurrency market value list, and even surpassed Pinduoduo, rising to 138th among global mainstream assets.
As XRP rose above $2, it also successfully set a new high since April 2021. Before XRP took off, Ripple CEO said that the Trump administration brought new hope to the crypto industry, and XRP may usher in a turnaround. What many investors did not expect was that this turn came quickly and violently, with the price of XRP rising by 400% in the past month. However, with such a high increase, is it still possible to buy XRP now?
1. XRP Blossoming
At the beginning of November this year, XRP's price hovered around $0.5. However, after Ripple's CEO stated on November 10 that Trump might bring a turnaround for XRP, the price of XRP truly soared.
According to data from CoinMarketcap, as of the time of writing, XRP has risen from around $0.5 to nearly $2.5, with an increase of up to 400% over the past month.
Since reaching a peak of $1.966 during the bull market in April 2021, XRP has fallen continuously for the past three and a half years, dropping to a low of $0.287 during this period.
The surge in XRP's price has also led to a skyrocketing market capitalization, surpassing $140 billion, outranking USDT and Solana to rank third in cryptocurrency market capitalization, and also surpassing traditional companies such as Pinduoduo and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, rising to the 136th position among global mainstream assets.
Other data shows that XRP's trading volume is active across major exchanges. The 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP/KRW on the South Korean exchange Upbit reached $3.8 billion, which is 11 times its BTC trading volume, exceeding Binance's XRP spot trading volume; on Bithumb, the 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP/KRW reached $1.2 billion, accounting for 32% of its total trading volume.
Additionally, data from xrpscan also shows that in November, the number of active XRP accounts grew by 100%, and its on-chain indicators showed positive signs of recovery. The number of active accounts or unique senders on the XRP network increased from 15,592 on November 1 to 47,044 on November 16. The total average number of active accounts in November doubled (increased by 100%) from around 12,000 to 25,000 this month, and the number of new accounts activated on the XRP ledger in November also significantly increased, indicating a large influx of new users onto the network.
Regarding XRP's performance mentioned above, Ripple's CEO seems to have anticipated it. He indicated as early as the beginning of November that the Trump administration might bring new hope to the cryptocurrency industry and that XRP might see a turnaround.
He explained that the Trump administration might change cryptocurrency regulations and resolve Ripple's long-standing legal disputes. He mentioned that since the SEC sued Ripple, XRP has faced many setbacks, but as adverse market factors fade, the situation is changing, and XRP's future prospects have become broader.
2. Multiple Positive Factors
1. Expectations of Policy Relaxation
The expectation of favorable cryptocurrency policies following Trump's ascension has continued to bring optimistic confidence to the cryptocurrency industry, and Ripple's CEO also mentioned that Trump may hope to resolve Ripple's long-standing legal disputes.
Subsequently, reports revealed that Trump may meet with Ripple's CEO and other representatives from the cryptocurrency industry to discuss formulating U.S. cryptocurrency policies.
Companies like Ripple are vying for positions on the cryptocurrency committee promised by Trump, seeking to have a voice in his planned policy reforms in the U.S.
The former CFTC Chairman also predicts that the SEC will drop its lawsuit against Ripple, which suggests that regulatory changes may trigger a significant rise in XRP.
2. Expectations for XRP ETF Launch and Financial Product Listings
Ripple's CEO stated that the XRP ETF is destined to be launched.
Bloomberg ETF analysts pointed out that XRP and other altcoin ETFs may need to be approved by the end of 2025, and the new SEC leadership in 2025 may be more friendly towards cryptocurrencies, potentially allowing ETF products to include staking features.
Ripple is expected to get approval from the New York Department of Financial Services to issue a stablecoin RLUSD, which may launch on December 4. If approved, Ripple will be able to legally offer RLUSD to the public, making it a major player in New York's regulated digital finance market and the broader stablecoin ecosystem, while also allowing Ripple to compete directly with other well-known U.S. stablecoin issuers such as Circle, Paxos, and Gemini.
WisdomTree will launch an XRP ETP on European exchanges, which will be 100% backed by physical XRP, with the assets stored in cold wallets and utilizing a dual custody model managed by regulated custodians.
Additionally, WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware, USA. 21Shares has also submitted an S-1 form to the SEC to apply for launching an XRP ETF, and Bitwise has submitted an XRP ETF application in Delaware.
Grayscale has opened private placements for a trust fund including XRP and 17 other tokens for qualified investors. Robinhood has re-listed SOL, ADA, and XRP on its U.S. platform and added PEPE to its listings.
3. Whales Propelling the Market
On the South Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb, the trading volumes of XRP reached $3.8 billion and $1.2 billion respectively. Analysis firm Scopescan stated that South Korean investors may be the main driving force behind the rise in XRP's price.
At the beginning of November, 400 million XRP were unlocked from an unknown custody wallet, amounting to approximately $203 million.
At the end of September, Ripple whales purchased over 470 million XRP within 10 days.
However, despite XRP's massive increase and various positive factors supporting it, analysts have still issued warnings:
CryptoQuant analysts: XRP open interest has risen by 37%, which may lead to a decline; the last similar event resulted in a 17% drop.
Another analysis suggests that XRP's target price may be between $1.95 and $2.05, but it should be noted that since November 16, XRP's price and trading volume have shown an inverse correlation, indicating that XRP is undergoing a distribution phase, and market traders may be looking to sell.
Summary
As an established project, it is indeed not easy for XRP to explode again. However, there are various positive factors surrounding it recently, whether in terms of policy regulation or the expectations of launching financial products such as ETFs, which have led investors to have considerable expectations. However, the cryptocurrency market has a long-standing investment tradition of favoring new projects over old ones. Whether XRP can continue to grow stronger and achieve new brilliance remains to be seen over time.
