Market value breakthrough and ranking recovery
The latest data shows that XRP's market value has successfully exceeded US$136.2 billion. This achievement has surpassed USDT and regained the throne of "the third largest cryptocurrency by market value", returning to its glorious level before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit in 2020.
In August, we had already made a detailed explanation and analysis of the important event that "the US court ruled that Ripple did not violate federal securities laws". After nearly 4 months of development, the price of XRP has performed very well, breaking through $2.3, which is nearly 4 times higher than before. Therefore, the market is optimistic about the future performance of XRP.
According to the data from Infinite Market Cap, based on the market value of $136.2 billion, XRP's market value once surpassed China Life Insurance in a short period of time, ranking 139th in the global asset ranking. However, its market value has now fallen back to around $132.8 billion. Taking all aspects into consideration, the surge in XRP's market value is mainly caused by the combined effect of many favorable factors at the macro and micro levels:
Macro level: Trump's coming to power is expected to help settle the "XRP vs SEC dispute"
After Trump was successfully elected as the new US President, the six-year dispute between Ripple and the SEC on whether XRP is a security is likely to reach a final decision. As a "crypto-friendly president", Trump has the potential to positively promote the subsequent development of the crypto industry.
Ripple has been active in political participation. Before the 2024 election, it donated $45 million to PAC, becoming one of the largest donors to Fairshake along with cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, Jump Crypto, and Andreessen Horowitz. Recently, it donated another $25 million, fully demonstrating its strong determination to influence crypto political tendencies.
In the cryptocurrency advisory committee that Trump is about to establish, a series of cryptocurrency companies such as Circle, Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, a16z, Paradigm, etc. are actively competing for related positions. They all hope to have a say in the process of Trump's planned US policy reform, which undoubtedly lays the foundation for XRP's recent good market performance.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has made several statements. He stressed the possible changes in cryptocurrency regulation under Trump, saying that Ripple and XRP may be facing a turning point, and the new pro-cryptocurrency regulatory shift is expected to resolve years of legal disputes. He also pointed out that the SEC has intervened in the crypto market for many years, and now that external adverse market factors have subsided, XRP has great opportunities. In addition, FOX Business reporter Liz Claman also confirmed that he had met with Trump to discuss topics related to cryptocurrency.
In terms of the progress of legal proceedings, there was a new development in the US SEC v. Ripple case in November. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals required the SEC's litigation brief to be submitted before January 15, 2025. Judge Phyllis Hamilton approved the final judgment of the settled Ripple class action lawsuit and ordered the suspension of the remaining unresolved lawsuits, which shortened the class action time and paved the way for the trial to begin on January 21, 2025. At the same time, the current US SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may resign around the time Trump takes office, which also contributed to the previous price increase of XRP.
In summary, Trump plays an extremely critical role in this "battle between crypto institutions and regulators". His decisions and actions will have a profound and decisive impact on the future direction of Ripple and XRP. The fate of XRP is closely linked to the Trump administration's crypto policy to a large extent.
Micro level: 1 billion XRP locked in escrow, stablecoin release imminent
Judging from the development of the project itself, XRP seems to be "blooming new flowers on an old tree."
One of the key factors driving the price of XRP is the "1 billion XRP tokens locked in custody". Whale Alert monitored that at 2:21 am today, Ripple re-locked 1 billion XRP worth about 1.546 billion US dollars in the custody wallet. Ripple uses the custody account system to ensure the transparency and stability of the XRP market, locks most of the XRP to prevent oversupply and price manipulation, and uses part of it to support ecological projects. Not all of the 1 billion XRP released each month will flow into the market, and Ripple will have a variety of ways to deal with it.
Ripple is actively expanding its territory into the field of stablecoins. In mid-November, it announced that it would launch the US dollar stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD), which is designed for corporate payments and focuses on stability, efficiency and transparency. It aims to strengthen cross-border payments and meet the needs of US dollar-denominated transactions. It is reported that it will be launched on December 4.
In terms of industry cooperation, Ripple has been active. In October, Uphold, Bitstamp and others were designated as RLUSD trading partners, with liquidity provided by the market B2C 2 and Keyrock. MoonPay also announced a partnership with Ripple to support users in purchasing, storing and managing XRP. In late November, Ripple partnered with Archax and ABRDN PLC to launch the first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger.
Stimulated by many positive news, Ripple and XRP ushered in the "Second Spring of Cryptocurrency". XRP ETF will also become the focus of the crypto market and continue to attract market attention.
Industry insiders have expressed positive opinions. Will XRP ETF be the first to go online?
As early as late October, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse wrote that the XRP ETF is "inevitable". The main basis for this is the growing share of Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to the latest data, the total holdings of the US Bitcoin spot ETF chain have exceeded 1.12 million BTC (about 1.128 million BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply; the value of the on-chain holdings reached 108.9 billion US dollars.
Dune Data Panel
At the same time, XRP has also received strong support from people in the crypto industry from different fields, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
XRP ETF registration has started: WisdomTree fired the "first shot", followed by Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares
At the end of November, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett wrote that global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered the XRP ETF in Delaware, USA. The company has now confirmed that it is a legal filing. It is reported that WisdomTree manages assets of more than US$100 billion.
At the same time, according to Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, “There are currently three ETF applications to hold XRP, the third largest cryptocurrency by market value.
Bitwise, Canary, and 21 Shares have all filed for spot XRP ETFs. Speculation is that other issuers will follow.”
"Grayscale Select": XRP is now included in the crypto portfolio
In early November, Grayscale officially announced that its XRP Trust Fund is now open to qualified accredited investors, providing investment opportunities in XRP. XRP is the core token of XRP Ledger, a distributed network that supports cross-border payments. Subsequently, at the end of November, Grayscale issued another statement saying that it is now open to qualified investors for private subscription of 17 token trust funds, including XRP.
As it turns out, Grayscale’s choice was a very wise one: According to statistics, the value of Grayscale’s cryptocurrency holdings increased significantly in November. According to Cryptorank data, the market value of its cryptocurrency holdings has increased by more than 85% in the past month, mainly due to tokens including XRP (which increased by more than 262% during the same period).
Asset management giant Bitwise has become a Ripple partner
In November, Ripple said it would invest in Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, but the specific investment amount was not disclosed. It is understood that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP was previously known as "European XRP ETP" and is part of Bitwise's crypto asset fund suite.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said that the decision to invest in the Bitwise Fund is in line with the surge in interest in exchange-traded products related to crypto assets. Subsequently, Bitwise officially announced that the asset management scale of Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) exceeded US$80 million, and Ripple was one of the investors. The product was listed and traded on Deutsche Börse Xetra, and European investors could obtain XRP exposure through GXRP.
Industry insiders all expressed their views: Solana, BNB, ADA and others all took sides
Just today, Solana co-founder Toly wrote: "We need a national XRP reserve." This remark is also seen as a response to Trump's previous emphasis on "establishing a national strategic reserve of Bitcoin."
At the end of November, CZ retweeted the news that the SEC might abandon the Ripple case because XRP is not a security but a commodity under the jurisdiction of the CFTC. The news came from an interview with former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo.
Previously, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson had praised Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse in a post, calling him a “great CEO” and describing their interactions as “extremely collaborative.” This public exchange sparked speculation that Cardano and Ripple might explore a strategic partnership.
Data level: Market transactions are active, and many data hit record highs
From the perspective of market data, XRP is also one of the best.
In the Korean market, Upbit's trading volume increased by more than 100% in seven days, with the biggest contributor being cryptocurrencies including XRP. In the fourth quarter, XRP's trading volume reached $38.6 billion, far higher than Bitcoin's $30.1 billion.
In terms of price, XRP briefly broke through 2.29 USDT today, reaching a new high since January 2018.
In addition, in terms of contract data, according to Coinglass data, the open positions of XRP futures contracts on the entire network are 1.739 billion ETH, equivalent to US$4.051 billion, a record high, with a 24-hour increase of 20.34%. Among them, the open positions of Bybit XRP contracts are 548 million XRP (approximately US$1.277 billion), ranking first, with a 24-hour increase of 19.13%.
In terms of trading volume, as XRP broke through $2, its 24-hour trading volume also exceeded $25 billion, currently reaching $25,338,798,676, and the trading volume to market value ratio reached 18.4%, indicating that trading activity is high relative to its market value.
By the way, influenced by various positive news, the number of XRP-related posts on the X platform has reached 480,000, even far exceeding the DOGE-related content with a strong meme attribute.
X platform content indicator one
If everything goes well, XRP ETF may become the "third cryptocurrency ETF" in the US market after BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
Conclusion: Where is the future of Ripple and XRP heading?
As the market value of XRP has returned to the level before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit, this six-year-long "first crypto regulatory case" that originated in 2018 is about to come to an end. There are also different opinions in the market about the future of Ripple and XRP.
Previously, Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO of SBI Holdings, a large Japanese financial services institution, wrote that once the SEC issue is resolved, Ripple should start preparing for an IPO as soon as possible. (Odaily Planet Daily Note: It is understood that SBI Holdings has been working with Ripple since 2017 to promote cross-border payment innovation. Kitao is a core figure in the Ripple-SBI cooperation and joined the Ripple board of directors in April 2019. His long-term support for Ripple and XRP dates back to 2017, when he predicted XRP as the global standard for digital currency, emphasizing its efficiency, low transaction costs and scalability.) Although similar proposals have been shelved by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse before, it can also be seen as one of the possible future directions of Ripple.
After all, as the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies improves further, more "cryptocurrency concept stocks" may be listed on the U.S. stock market. By then, Ripple and XRP may usher in another wave of development peaks.
【Disclaimer】The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk.