On Monday (December 2), Bitcoin fluctuated around the $97,900 level, with the price struggling to break through the critical threshold of $100,000. XRP surged over 20%, with a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion, becoming the fourth-largest cryptocurrency globally. A new round of altcoin season sees Ethereum return to the top 30 global asset market capitalizations.
Historical data shows that when Bitcoin dominance decreases, funds typically flow into other tokens. In 2017-2018, altcoins experienced their first explosion; in 2020-2021, decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFTs were the main driving factors. In 2024, institutional capital will enter the market through compliant channels like ETFs, providing new momentum for the expansion of altcoins.
According to Trading View data, Bitcoin dominance has fallen by over 4%, and since Donald Trump's election as president, Bitcoin's share of the cryptocurrency market capitalization has gradually declined, with Ethereum, US blue-chip public chain Solana (SOL), and Ripple's XRP rising.
CoinMarketCap data indicates that XRP's market capitalization currently exceeds $135 billion, while Solana's market capitalization is $111.9 billion.
XRP's position in the global asset market capitalization ranking has also risen by 13 places to 177th, surpassing luxury giant Dior, semiconductor giant Micron Technology, and BHP Group.
Ethereum's market capitalization has surpassed that of US warehouse club giant Costco and Vanguard Group, returning to the top 30 global asset market capitalizations, currently ranking 29th.
XRP has performed strongly in recent weeks, rising since November 10, and has now reached its highest point in seven years.
CoinTelegraph reported that XRP's rapid price performance can be attributed to an increasing number of key partnerships, new product developments by Ripple Labs, the potential for a Wall Street XRP spot ETF, and unverified rumors about billionaire Elon Musk making a large investment in XRP.
Asset management firm 21Shares applied for an XRP ETF on November 1, raising investor expectations that the SEC will approve this ETF application after Trump's administration.
On November 15, the New York Stock Exchange Arca filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to list Bitwise's cryptocurrency index exchange-traded products. The Bitwise cryptocurrency index will include 10 digital assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Avalanche, and others.
On November 25, asset management company WisdomTree applied for an XRP ETF in Delaware, joining the ranks of 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise.
Ripple Labs also announced on November 25 the launch of the first tokenized money market fund on the XRP ledger. This tokenized fund is a collaboration between Ripple Labs and the UK-regulated cryptocurrency exchange Archax.
As part of a collaboration between the two companies, Ripple will tokenize Abrdn's $4.77 billion liquidity fund.
Recent reports indicate that Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin will receive approval from New York financial regulators in the coming days; it is an over-collateralized token pegged to the US dollar.
Bitcoin's upward momentum stalls: Strong dollar from Trump, potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.
Regarding the trend of Bitcoin, analysts at asset management company Bitwise recently stated that the US dollar index has risen from 103.42 on the day Trump won the US election to the current level of 106, which may hinder Bitcoin's attempt to reach $100,000.
Analysts state: "Historical data shows that Bitcoin often faces limitations during periods of a strong dollar. Additionally, a strong dollar often signals global liquidity tightening, which is currently the most important economic factor affecting Bitcoin."
Additionally, Bitwise analysts pointed out that another significant factor that may hinder Bitcoin's rise is the increased likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on December 19. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on November 22 shows that inflationary pressures remain in Japan, and the USD/JPY has recently seen a decline, increasing the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the December meeting.
Once Japan raises interest rates again, the yen carry trade that previously caused turmoil in global capital markets may re-emerge, and Bitcoin may also be affected at that time.
George Milling-Stanley, chief strategist at State Street Global Advisors, warned that the recent surge in Bitcoin in November may have given investors a false sense of security, as current investors tend to buy to profit from Bitcoin investments rather than seeing its long-term value.
He wrote: "In simple terms, investing in Bitcoin is a pursuit of returns, indicating that the influx of investors is chasing profits rather than recognizing Bitcoin's long-term value or utility."
"The Bitcoin ETF options launched last week may be related to this, allowing people to bet on price fluctuations with smaller amounts without actually purchasing Bitcoin."
Technical analysis of XRP
FXStreet junior cryptocurrency analyst Michael Ebiekutan stated that according to CoinGlass data, XRP triggered $24.75 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours. The liquidations involved long and short positions of $7.58 million and $17.17 million, respectively.
Ripple is expected to complete a rounded bottom pattern; if the price firmly breaks through the resistance near $1.96 and encounters rejection, its upward momentum may extend over 30% to $2.58.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the oversold region, indicating that prices are overheated and may experience a pullback.
A weekly candle close below $1.35 would invalidate this argument.
