Minsheng Securities stated that the probability of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts will increase by mid-next year. The unemployment rate remains low, and inflation is hindered from declining. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 2 to 3 more times next year, and may pause rate cuts in the second half of the year. In a low probability scenario, excessive tariffs and immigration policies could lead to a decline in US stocks and a significant slowdown in the US economy, which may result in more interest rate cuts next year. (Jinshi)