Minsheng Securities stated that the probability of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts by mid-next year is increasing. The unemployment rate remains low, coupled with difficulties in inflation declining, the Federal Reserve may have 2 to 3 more rate cuts next year, with a pause in the second half of the year. In a low-probability scenario, overly aggressive tariff and immigration policies could lead to a decline in US stocks and a significant slowdown in the US economy, which may result in more rate cuts next year. (Jinshi)