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1. Price forecast (short term, 3-hour timeframe):
Current situation:
The price is at $33.513, below the key resistance at $34.551 (0.5 on Fibonacci). This indicates a potential continuation of consolidation or a decline if the price holds below dynamic support.
Key factors:
• RSI (63.7): Indicates local overbought conditions. If RSI starts to decline, it will increase the likelihood of a correction.
• EMA 20 ($33.052): Acts as the nearest support. A break of this level will lead to testing $32.851 (0).
• Ichimoku: The price is trading above the cloud, but a transition to a consolidation phase is possible.
If the resistance at $34.551 (0.5 on Fibonacci) remains unbroken, a decline to the next levels is likely.
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2. Support and resistance levels (Fibonacci):
Resistance (upward):
1. $34.551 (0.5): Current key resistance.
2. $34.958 (0.62): Strengthened resistance on the rise.
3. $35.247 (0.705): Medium-term resistance.
4. $35.536 (0.79): Final bounce zone.
5. $36.250 (1.0): Main growth target in the short term.
6. $38.351 (1.618): Strengthened target for the bullish scenario.
Supports (downward):
1. $33.052 (EMA 20): Nearest dynamic support.
2. $32.851 (0): Key support. A break of this level will confirm the decline.
3. $31.933 (-0.27): First target of the bearish scenario.
4. $30.744 (-0.62): Strengthened support zone.
5. $29.452 (-1.0): Critical level of decline.
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3. Short scenario: entry, exit and stop-loss points
Short entries:
1. Upon bounce from the level $34.551 (0.5 Fibonacci):
o Entry upon confirmation of the pullback from the level.
o Stop-loss: $34.800 — just above the level.
2. Upon breaking the level $32.851 (0 Fibonacci) downwards:
o Entry upon holding below the level.
o Stop-loss: $33.500 — just above the broken level.
Profit taking targets:
• First target: $31.933 (-0.27 Fibonacci).
• Second target: $30.744 (-0.62 Fibonacci).
• Third target: $29.452 (-1.0 Fibonacci).
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4. Probability of short scenario execution:
1. Upon bounce from $34.551 (0.5):
Probability of the short scenario is 65% if the price fails to break the resistance level of $34.551 and begins to decline.
2. Upon breaking $32.851 (0):
The probability of further decline to $31.933 and below is 70%, as the level of $32.851 is a key support.
3. Decline to $30.744 (-0.62):
The probability of reaching this level is 50%, in case of breaking previous supports.
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5. Detailed short scenario:
1. Bounce from $34.551 (0.5 Fibonacci):
If the price bounces from the level $34.551, a movement to $33.052 (EMA 20) and then to $32.851 (0 Fibonacci) is likely. Holding below this zone will strengthen the downward momentum.
2. Break of $32.851 (0 Fibonacci):
Holding the price below the level of $32.851 will confirm the activation of the short scenario with targets at $31.933 (-0.27 Fibonacci) and $30.744 (-0.62 Fibonacci).
3. Reaching $29.452 (-1.0 Fibonacci):
In case of strong bearish momentum, the price may reach $29.452, which coincides with a deep correction within the current structure. #ENS
