Good afternoon, brothers.
The current market is still in a complex and volatile stage. Although Bitcoin is leading the way and the rebound of altcoins has not yet fully erupted, the real altcoin season does not seem to be far away. Looking back at 2021, we have witnessed the crazy altcoin market, a period when all small currencies soared, and now, the market sentiment has begun to change subtly, and many people are wondering when the altcoin season will come?
Bitcoin's performance determines the performance of altcoins
Now Bitcoin's market position is still strong, and although some altcoins have begun to rebound slightly, this does not mean that the altcoin season has arrived. The real outbreak of altcoins usually waits until Bitcoin's performance reaches a peak, and funds will shift from Bitcoin to altcoins.
In the last bull market, Bitcoin performed very strongly at the end of 2020, and it was not until the beginning of 2021 that altcoins began to usher in a wave of big gains. If this time it develops according to a similar pattern, then the outbreak of altcoins may have to wait until 2025.
Altcoins haven’t quite gotten stronger yet
We can see from the market capitalization of altcoins that altcoins are still at the bottom stage, and the market speculation sentiment has not fully erupted. The current altcoin speculation index is 40%, and the altcoin seasonal index is 57, which is far lower than the level of more than 90% in the previous bull market. This means that altcoins still have a lot of room for growth and may have greater performance in the future.
Seize the investment opportunities of sector rotation and new coins
In a bull market, investors often pay attention to newly launched currencies, especially those listed on large exchanges, such as Binance. The currencies listed on Binance are usually more conservative, which means that these currencies will receive more market attention and traffic, so their potential is relatively large.
In addition, there are some infrastructure tokens, such as THE, which carry important functions like Binance Chain, and may achieve very significant growth in the future like CAKE before.
For retail investors like us, low-priced coins are also a common choice, especially those small coins with a price of less than $1. Although the prices of these coins seem cheap, their increases may also be very surprising.
How to determine whether the market is in a bull market?
How to judge whether the market has entered a bull market? A common market sentiment indicator is to observe the changes in the mentality of the public. When many people in the market start writing "success memoirs", it usually means that the bull market is close to the top; and when many people start writing "failure reflections", it often marks the arrival of the bottom.
In the bull market of 2021, although the market performed strongly for most of the time, many investors did not realize that the bull market had arrived until the beginning of 2021. At this time, many currencies had already gone through more than 10 times of the market. Therefore, the key to judging the bull market does not rely entirely on technical analysis or market data, but to perceive market sentiment and understand the psychological state of participants.
In the early stages of a bull market, investors may be excited about a 3%-4% daily increase, but in a real bull market, a 30%-40% increase is "common." The rise of many currencies often no longer relies on fundamental support, but is driven purely by market sentiment, and even some seemingly illogical currencies can rise sharply.
At present, the market has not fully recovered, but if you are already in this market, the bull market feeling may have already set in. Next, I will share some operating strategies in the current market stage.
1. Core asset allocation
It is recommended to allocate 50% to 70% of the positions to core assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, etc. These assets represent the foundation of the current market, and their future potential is still very huge. In particular, Bitcoin is expected to become digital gold, and its price will continue to rise steadily.
In addition, you can use 2-3 times leverage for long-term layout, especially focusing on the performance of Bitcoin. If BTC rises strongly, it will become the cornerstone of the subsequent counterattack of altcoins.
2. Altcoin strategy
As the altcoin market gradually recovers, you can start to consider allocating 30% to 50% of your positions to strong sectors. At this time, investors need to keep up with market hotspots, especially the second-layer expansion solutions and staking-related currencies in the ETH ecosystem.
In terms of short-term operations, it is recommended to stop profit in time when the profit reaches 20-30%. The remaining positions can be set with a stop loss at the original price to ensure that part of the profit is locked in.
3. Meme coin layout
Currently, Meme coins are in a period of adjustment. Although the performance of these coins is not outstanding in the short term, they may usher in a strong rise once the next round of market outbreak. It is recommended to pay attention to leading coins such as DOGE and PEPE. Once the market starts, you can consider investing in related small coins such as PNUT and NEIRO.
4. Fund management: seize the main rising trend
In a bull market, sector rotation is very obvious. The inflow and outflow of funds often determine which currencies can achieve greater gains. Therefore, timely tracking of market hotspots and avoiding frequent position changes are the key to ensuring profits.
For those who cannot track the market in real time, it is recommended to enter the market after confirming the signal, rather than rushing to chase the rise. Always adhere to the strategy of seizing the main rising wave to avoid missing big opportunities in short-term fluctuations.
The market is currently in the early stages of a bull market. Although the rise in Bitcoin prices has boosted the overall market, the real rebound of altcoins still needs to wait for the gradual weakening of Bitcoin's dominance. Investors should treat market fluctuations rationally at this stage, choose appropriate assets for allocation, grasp changes in market sentiment, and flexibly adjust operating strategies.
For retail investors who are interested in altcoins, remaining cautious and paying attention to changes in market hotspots will help capture more opportunities in the upcoming altcoin season.
