While the year ahead looks promising, top strategists at Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) believe investors still need to remain wary of risks that could disrupt the status quo.

GSAM, which manages $3.1 trillion in assets, said in its 2025 outlook report that the economic landscape next year is likely to continue this year's trend, and the United States and other major economies are expected to achieve a so-called "soft landing," that is, economic adjustment under steady growth and a loose financial environment.

“We are cautiously optimistic that major economies can achieve a new equilibrium of sustained growth as central banks gradually ease policy.”

However, this optimism does not mean that confidence can explode, as strategists also point out that "tail risks may upset this balance." Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, co-head of investments at GSAM, listed potential risks and opportunities in a recent interview.

Inflation and tariffs could pose challenges in 2025

Central to GSAM's bullish view are lower interest rates. The market is pricing in two to four rate cuts by December next year, with one or two likely before May. This would boost economic activity by making borrowing more expensive for individuals and businesses.

However, market expectations for rate cuts have weakened since Trump was elected president. Although Wall Street is full of expectations for the new administration, some are concerned that new tariffs could push up inflation, delaying rate cuts. GSAM strategists said in a report,

“A second Trump presidency could bring more upside risks to inflation from tariffs, causing the Fed to pause or slow the pace of rate cuts.”

Markets may be hoping for a repeat of Trump's first-term policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation. However, another wave of tariffs could spark a trade war, hurt economic growth and push up prices, which would not be popular with markets.

“We believe the policy pace and priorities between Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0 are likely to be different, which could be difficult for the market to digest in the first quarter of next year.”

However, she stressed that although investors expected rate cuts, the global economic expansion continued to move forward steadily without them.

“The market and the economy have adjusted to a higher interest rate environment,” Wilson-Elizondo added. “Right now, the expectation of a rate cut is more psychological than what the market needs. But many of the factors driving the economy, such as investment and consumption, remain very strong.”

Enterprises have strong coping capabilities, but the labor market may have hidden concerns

Like the economy, companies can also prove resilient, especially if they have time to respond to changes in trade policy. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow about 14% through 2025, driven by catalysts such as deregulation and slower wage growth.

“Tighter tariffs could have some impact on inflation, but on the other hand, we might see improvements in labor market efficiency,” Wilson-Elizondo said.

However, such efficiency gains usually mean layoffs. After experiencing labor shortages during the pandemic, many companies are reluctant to lay off employees, but Wilson-Elizondo believes that this may be changing.

The risk, she said, is that companies could suddenly shift their view of the workforce from holding on to workers because it was too hard to hire them in the past few years to seeking efficiencies or being more defensive rather than offensive in their approach to costs and spending.

Such concerns are not unfounded. The number of layoffs in the U.S. has been on an upward trend over the past few months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in the fall and has since stabilized. Although GSAM strategists are not worried about the labor market for the time being, they are watching these trends closely.

Stock market valuations are high, but still worth investing in

Perhaps what investors need to worry about most is that their peers are not showing any concern.

There is a general sense of complacency and over-optimism in the market, and US stock valuations are at historical highs based on various indicators, including forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, and market capitalization-to-GDP ratio.

One of the metrics Wilson-Elisondo watches is the equity risk premium (ERP), or the attractiveness of stocks relative to the risk-free return on U.S. Treasuries. A low ERP suggests that the risk-reward ratio of investing in stocks may not be ideal right now.

"Ultimately, what we're most concerned about is the margin of safety," Wilson-Elizondo said. "It doesn't necessarily mean there's going to be a problem, but the margin of safety is very small right now."

Even if concerns about trade policy and the labor market don’t materialize next year, the stock market may have already priced in its upside. The S&P 500 has risen more than 24% for two straight years.

“Given geopolitical disruptions, current high valuation levels, and the pressure on individual stocks to perform during earnings season, it will be very difficult to beat expectations.”

Despite lofty valuations, GSAM isn’t giving up on U.S. stocks. Wilson-Elizondo said she sees opportunities across all categories, including large-cap stocks that aren’t big tech leaders.

“We believe there are a lot of M&A opportunities in many tech sectors outside of the ‘Big Seven.’ We also see a lot of opportunities in the mid-cap stocks of the index that will benefit from the themes we have mentioned, such as stronger consumer demand and deregulation.”

In addition, GSAM recommends increasing allocations to emerging market stocks, which are cheaper and could rise sharply due to lower interest rates and solid profit growth.

These long-promised markets have failed to break out for years, posting only modest gains in the mid-single digits in the past two years. But Wilson-Elizondo believes 2025 could be the turning point as China gets serious about its economic stimulus plan.

“Emerging markets in general have not given the returns that people have expected over a long period of time, which is why we view them as a more dynamic way to invest,” she said.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data