Bitcoin Shows Bull Market Isn’t Over Yet and Could Set the Stage for Higher Highs
In its latest report, on-chain research firm CryptoQuant noted that the value held by new holders remains lower than previous cycle levels. Currently, new investors’ holdings account for just over 50% of total investment in the cryptocurrency, compared to over 90% and 80% at previous market peaks, such as 2017 and 2021.
This may be due to the fact that retail investors have slowed down their Bitcoin buying activity in recent weeks. Increased retail activity is often “typical of market cycle peaks,” according to the analysis. Since October, retail investors have reduced their holdings by 41,000 BTC, while larger investors have significantly increased their holdings by 130,000 BTC.
“Previous bull cycles ended with aggressive retail buying, but that’s not the case this time.”
This shift signals a potential shift in market dynamics, with institutions and large players driving the accumulation phase. ETF investors led the buying of Bitcoin in November, with weekly inflows surging to a record $3.1 billion in the week ending November 23 — when prices hit a record $99,655.
Bitcoin price dropped to around $91,000 on November 26 and has failed to break the $100,000 resistance level. According to some analysts, BTC could still correct 30% before breaking the six-figure mark.
CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator has been in bullish territory since early November and has been rising ever since. However, the indicator is still lagging behind the overheated bull phase last reached in March 2024, when Bitcoin hit a new high, trading above $70,000.
From a fair value valuation perspective, Bitcoin's highest price target is currently $146,000.
“This price band has served as a top for Bitcoin in previous cycles, such as in April-May 2021. The P&L has not reached overvaluation levels so far in this cycle, suggesting that the price still has room to rise.”