Author: DWF Labs
Compiled by: TechFlow
introduction
The cryptocurrency market has just experienced one of the most anticipated events of 2024 - the successful election of Trump. This event triggered drastic changes in the market, not only pushing Bitcoin (BTC) to a record high, but also driving the overall rise of most cryptocurrencies.
Currently, BTC is trading close to $100,000, a target that has been a hotly discussed prediction among speculators since 2021.
This report will focus on analyzing key indicators and trends in BTC price movements, DeFi activity, stablecoin market capitalization, and altcoin performance.
These indicators can provide us with important references and help us better grasp the opportunities in the new round of market cycles.
BTC Trend Analysis
Since the launch of the ETF, Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its strong upward momentum. Overall, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) shows a clear upward trend.
In the short term (EMA 13 and EMA 25), the EMAs have been steadily expanding positively from August to the eve of the November election. The medium-term trend (EMA 50) has provided important support during the pullback, and the BTC price has been firmly above EMA 50 since September.
As for the long-term trend, the 100-day EMA extension has been increasing since July, showing a clear bullish signal in the market.
Market trends show positive momentum: BTC’s price action shows that short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends are all bullishly stacked, while the market structure remains healthy.
Despite the optimistic market outlook, we still need to pay attention to changes in market dynamics. Using simple trend indicators such as EMA, we can identify the following potential risk signals:
Price breaks below a short-term or medium-term trend line
The long-term EMA crosses below the short-term EMA
After the uptrend, the EMA contracts
BTC Spot Basis Analysis on Binance and Coinbase
The recent rise in BTC is closely related to the return of the Coinbase premium. The so-called Coinbase premium refers to the fact that the spot price of BTC on the Coinbase platform is higher than the spot price on the Binance platform. This phenomenon is usually seen as a signal of a rebound in institutional investor interest and capital inflows. When the Coinbase premium disappears, the market often sees a price correction. Therefore, it is very important to use the Coinbase premium as a key market indicator.
Generally speaking, a sustained Coinbase premium often heralds the arrival of a trending market, while a Binance premium more reflects a broad increase in market participation.
The following table summarizes how changes in Binance and Coinbase basis affect BTC price action and shifts in market conditions.
Stablecoins, DeFi and Industry Trends
Trump's victory brought the possibility of "deregulation" in the cryptocurrency field. After the election, DeFi performed particularly well, which may be the market's expectation for a more relaxed regulatory environment, and was also driven by Trump's launch of his stablecoin project World Liberty Finance.
Judging from the growth trend of stablecoins and DeFi, user adoption is increasing. Combined with future market analysis, the continued popularity of USDT and USDC will further increase the overall liquidity of the cryptocurrency market. This trend echoes the possible loose regulatory policies after Trump's victory, further supporting the optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency market.
(Note: Data comes from Coingecko and DefiLlama)
It is worth noting that despite the strong performance of the overall industry, meme tokens are far ahead in terms of returns. This may be because retail investors prefer assets that are centered on attracting attention. In contrast, the decline in volatility in other areas may reflect the gradual maturity of these areas.
Investment themes and trend changes in the cryptocurrency market usually show cyclical characteristics. Therefore, paying attention to areas such as DeFi and Layer 1 (first layer blockchain) may help identify early signals of institutional adoption. At the same time, the combination with physical assets (RWA) and infrastructure projects or applications may also become an important guide for the development of the industry.
As crypto market themes and narratives continue to diverge, it is important to use data-driven approaches to track these changes.
in conclusion
In 2024, the cryptocurrency market shows significant maturing trends. The performance of each field has its own characteristics, and the difference in behavioral patterns between institutional investors and retail investors has become increasingly obvious. Bitcoin’s strong performance has led to growth across multiple sectors, with Meme tokens standing out as a standout performer.
The market structure shows that the institutionalization process is still progressing steadily, but it also provides opportunities for retail investors to participate. At DWF, we continue to pay attention to core indicators such as the total locked value (TVL) and stablecoin growth in DeFi. These data can not only depict the overall pattern of industry development, but also provide insights into future trends.
In addition, paying attention to the capital flows of major crypto assets is an important indicator of market momentum. Through these indicators, investors can better manage risks and formulate investment strategies.
