As Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, intuitively speaking, the possibility of Bitcoin continuing to rise does not seem particularly large, but once it rises, it is often a rapid rise; and although the possibility of falling is relatively high, the worst case is only a halving of the price.
Imagine that you are riding a high-speed train to the future. The train suddenly stops, and there is an 80% probability that it will go back within an hour and then start again, and there is a 20% probability that it will suddenly continue to move forward. If you choose to get off the train and rest for an hour, betting that the train will not start immediately, are you willing to take this risk?
It is recommended not to take this risk. That one-hour rest will not bring much fun, and once that low-probability event occurs-the train suddenly starts, and you are not on the train, you will lose the opportunity to continue the journey.
For Bitcoin, this low-probability event is what we often call a black swan event. If an economy suddenly encounters a major crisis, the Bitcoin train may suddenly start, and if you happen to be not on the train, then you will only be able to watch others move forward
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