Recently, many people have been messaging me asking whether Bitcoin's recent rise can continue. Is it nearing a peak? What should we do in the future market? So how do we judge and observe whether Bitcoin can continue to rise? We need to observe whether this round of increase is driven by retail FOMO sentiment. If it is, then we are likely in the late stage of a surge, as retail investors rushing in are usually the ones being cut. If not, it means this round of increase is driven by large holders or institutions, and this round of increase is likely still in its early stage.
(1) Judging retail investors
The simplest method to determine whether retail investors are entering the market is to look at the number of newly created Bitcoin addresses. You can see that as the number of new addresses increases, more retail investors are entering the market, which usually aligns with price peaks, right? Although there have been moderate signs of recovery in new addresses over the past few months, it hasn't been as explosive as expected, has it? Compared to last year's ETF surge, where the number of new addresses reached 791,000 in a single day, this is entirely incomparable.
(2) Another way to determine retail investor FOMO entry
This is about checking the trend on Google search. Although the search volume for Bitcoin has increased in the past month, it is still far below the peak levels of 2021 and 2017. This indicates that retail investors' interest in Bitcoin is recovering, but it has not yet reached the frenzied state driven by FOMO that the market held before.
Additionally, we can all see a significant outflow of funds from long-term holders to new investors, which has also driven the subsequent price increase. Previously, the bull market relied on high-leverage trading through futures contracts. However, this time, the flow of funds from long-term holders to new investors is relatively mild, and a key characteristic is that this price increase is driven by spot trading rather than contract leverage. Therefore, this increase is likely to be more stable and resilient, as fewer investors will face the risk of forced liquidation.
So who is driving this Bitcoin rise? Although the number of retail addresses has not significantly increased, the addresses of large holders or institutions holding at least 100 Bitcoins are increasing. In the past few weeks, these large wallets have added tens of thousands of Bitcoins, with a total value reaching billions of dollars. This growth indicates that these major investors in Bitcoin are confident in the current price level. Even though Bitcoin is approaching historical highs, they still believe there is further room for growth.
In summary, this round of rebound may still be in its early stages. Long-term investors should maintain confidence, as whales are accumulating, and the leverage level in the Bitcoin market remains moderate. These are all signs of a healthy and sustainable rebound. As this bull market progresses, the market structure indicates that there may be a larger wave driven by retail investors in the future, and that may likely be the end of this round of rebound. Next, I will share some operational strategies for the future direction!
① Position allocation
Core assets: primarily BTC, ETH, and SOL, it is recommended to allocate about 50-70% of your position in these coins. You can choose 1-2 of them and open 2-3 times leverage for long-term investment; these are the safety assets in a bull market.
② Altcoin operations
For altcoins, the main strategy is to follow the market trends closely, suggesting a position size of 30-50%. For example, if you notice that ETH is performing strongly, focus on related projects within the ETH ecosystem, such as layer-two scaling or staking tokens. Make a substantial investment, aim for a 20-30% profit, then withdraw, leaving 1/3 or half of the position for a stop-loss at the original price to maintain a broader perspective. This way, you can make profits without losses even during a bull market. When a sector starts moving, follow the coins that haven't risen much, and wait for them to surge together.
③ Meme coins Meme coins are currently still in the adjustment phase, and we need to wait for the next opportunity before the next wave of explosion. If you focus on leading coins like DOGE or PEPE, once they strengthen, you can pursue those related smaller coins, such as pnut, neiro, wif, flock, etc. Typically, these coins will rise together with the leading ones. In a bull market, the profit effects brought by sector rotation will be very obvious. If you can't keep an eye on the sector changes all the time, it's best to enter when there is a startup signal, and avoid frequently changing positions; this way, you can make a profit when the market truly explodes!
#比特币盘整分析 #XRP市场价格动向 #币安HODLerTHE #市场波动，加仓还是观望？ #美国续请失业金人数创三年新高
