Shanzhai

When will the altcoin season arrive? Bitcoin has been somewhat stagnant, is it time for the altcoin season?
This round of increase can be said to be a solo performance by Bitcoin, while most altcoins have not risen significantly. However, most retail investors are holding altcoins, and Bitcoin's rise is unrelated to the majority of investors.
From the current altcoin season index, it has risen from 33 to 63 in less than a month, indicating that more and more altcoins are rising at the same time, surpassing Bitcoin;
However, according to the theoretical data of the altcoin season, if 75% of the top 50 tokens from the previous season (90 days ago) perform better than Bitcoin, it is considered an altcoin season; the current data is very close, but it hasn't arrived yet.
When will the altcoin season arrive? My judgment is that it will be fully here by the 18th of next month when the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting results come out; in fact, it can already be considered the early stage of the altcoin season.
At present, the main coins in the top 50 that have outperformed Bitcoin are well-established mainstream coins such as XLM, DOGE, OM, ADA, and XRP, as shown in the figure below.
The logic behind this is that old money loves old coins: currently, the funds entering the market are mainly represented by old money from Wall Street, which is driving up Bitcoin due to the Bitcoin spot ETF, and a portion spills over to the well-established and renowned old coins that have already been tested in the market;
If this logic holds, then the next coins to rise should be the strong coins that have emerged in the last two to three years, at least those in the top 100 by market cap; if considering betting on smaller coins, one should think twice;
For example, public chain coins: SUI, APT, TIA, TON, ADA, DOT, AVAX, TRX, MATIC, NEAR; MEME: DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, etc.;
Only after the altcoin season takes off will it be a true feast; right now, we are just one layer of paper away from breaking through.