This week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp pullback after peaking, dropping more than 8,000 points and gradually stabilizing, currently hovering around 95,000 points in a consolidation phase. Regarding this week's overall market, Chen Yan provides a deep interpretation from the technical aspect and market interconnectivity.
1. There is no need to panic about this round of adjustment; repair is a necessary process.
Since early November, Bitcoin has risen over 30,000 points in a short period, forming a rapid upward trend. However, as the price has significantly increased, the major moving averages have clearly deviated from their operational tracks, leaving a huge adjustment gap below. This structural imbalance needs to be repaired through appropriate adjustments to lay the foundation for the healthy development of subsequent trends.
Although market bulls provided ample bottom support during the rise, if Bitcoin is to launch an attack on the '100,000' round number and even achieve an effective breakthrough, then this round of adjustment is clearly a necessary phase. Historically, every major increase has gone through a similar accumulation phase.
2. The necessity of interconnectivity in various aspects of the market
In addition to the technical adjustment needs, this round of Bitcoin's adjustment is closely related to the overall market environment. The weakness of US stocks at the beginning of this week and Ethereum's (ETH) relatively lagging performance earlier provided an opportunity for Bitcoin's adjustment. As a barometer of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin's decline has provided rebound space for mainstream currencies like Ethereum. This interconnectivity between the leader and secondary leader further confirms the overall characteristics of the crypto market.
Ethereum's strong rebound has brought vitality back to the market: Ethereum's recent performance shows obvious rebound characteristics. After Solana's (SOL) strong performance attracted a lot of market attention, Ethereum's market share was once challenged. However, after stabilizing the pullback pressure around the 3,000 point level, Ethereum quickly launched a rebound, demonstrating strong support and market confidence.
Ethereum's current rebound reflects its important position as the 'second leader' in public chains. If Bitcoin can stabilize in this round of adjustment, Ethereum is expected to initiate an attack first, breaking through the short-term pressure level of 3,700 points, with the target looking towards the 4,000 mark.
Historically, once Ethereum enters a rebound phase, it often presents characteristics of rapid short-term increases. This trend means that the time for investors to react is relatively short, making it particularly important to grasp key support levels and gradually enter the market.
Year-end outlook, Bitcoin is only a step away from breaking 100,000:
With only about 30 days left in 2024, can Bitcoin break through the 100,000 mark within the year? Based on the current trend and market sentiment, this goal has a high probability. Even if there is a slight delay in timing, it may be the market waiting for clearer catalysts. For example, macroeconomic data, policy signals, or significant events within the industry may become the key to the next breakthrough.
Key variables for the year-end market:
1. Macroeconomic environment: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, global economic data, and the trend of the US dollar index may continue to impact Bitcoin's market.
2. Industry hot events: Major news such as ETF approvals and institutional capital inflows will directly boost market confidence.
3. Market structure adjustment: Whether Bitcoin can consolidate the support at 95,000 points directly relates to the strength of the subsequent attack on the 100,000 mark.
Overall, Chen Yan believes that this round of Bitcoin's adjustment is a dual result of technical and market demand. Although short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the medium to long-term trend still leans towards optimism. At the same time, Ethereum's strong performance in the rebound further consolidates its market position. Looking towards the year-end, investors need to closely monitor important macroeconomic and industry events and reasonably layout to cope with potential market fluctuations.
The challenge for Bitcoin to break the 100,000 mark and whether Ethereum can surpass 4,000 points is not only a test of technology and market sentiment but also an important reflection of market investment logic. Looking forward to the year-end market bringing more surprises.