After Bitcoin reached new highs consecutively, it saw a nearly 10% drop. However, it rebounded to $97,000 yesterday, and the speed of Bitcoin's rebound was faster than I expected. I thought the market would be a bit dull this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., but during the process of Bitcoin's price decline, the panic selling from short-term holders seemed to indicate that Bitcoin had found its bottom.
Yesterday, the PCE inflation data for October was released, showing an increase compared to September, with a year-on-year rise of 2.8%. After this data was released, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December further increased, currently reaching nearly 65%.
After two consecutive days of outflows from the spot ETF, funds finally flowed back in. As a key force absorbing the holdings seized from long-term holders, the influx of funds into the spot ETF, although beneficial for the recovery of Bitcoin's price.
At the same time, the Coinbase pricing also rebounded from the previously negative pricing area, quickly returning to a higher positive pricing range, and U.S. investors have become active again. However, the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday still needs to be considered, and the spot ETF will not open for trading today.
It is worth noting that the investors who bought Bitcoin in the past week are the main entities suffering losses this time. From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has just returned to the level it was at a week ago. According to previous data provided by Cryptocon, the SOPR of short-term holders has already dropped below one, with SOPR being an important indicator to measure the profit or loss status of investors when trading. If the SOPR value is above one, it means that short-term holders of Bitcoin made a profit when selling Bitcoin, while when this value is below one, it indicates that they are on average in a state of loss. Some short-term holders are selling at a loss.
