Futures Early Morning Peak - Audio Version
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Macro news
1. The Australian government stated that the country is expected to achieve its emission reduction targets by 2030, although there were previous concerns that the promotion of renewable energy nationwide was not fast enough to meet legislative goals. According to estimates from the Australian Government's Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water Resources, under the current policy settings, Australia's emissions are expected to decrease by 42.6% from 2005 levels by 2030, significantly lower than the 32% reduction target projected two years ago.
2. From January to October, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 586.804 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. From January to October, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises achieved a total profit of 185.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%.
3. A senior Hamas official stated that Hamas is ready to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and welcomes the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The official mentioned that Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey have been notified that Hamas is prepared to reach a ceasefire agreement and an agreement for the exchange of hostages, but he also accused Israel of obstructing the agreement.
4. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that initial jobless claims fell last week, recording 213,000, lower than market expectations, indicating that despite the cooling labor market, the U.S. economy has avoided large-scale layoffs. Continued jobless claims reached their highest level in three years.
5. The U.S. third quarter actual GDP annualized rate was unchanged from the initial value at 2.8%, a slowdown from the 3% growth rate in the second quarter. However, the GDP report still shows that the resilience of the U.S. economy is remarkable. In the past nine quarters, eight quarters had growth rates exceeding 2%.
6. The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the core PCE year-on-year rate, rose to 2.8% in October as expected, indicating that although prices have slowed, they remain sticky. The core PCE year-on-year rate continues to hover near 3% rather than 2%, complicating the Fed's upcoming decisions.
Global futures market volatility
1. International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures up 0.58% at $2,636.4 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down 0.94% at $30.12 per ounce.
2. International oil prices remained basically stable, with the January 2025 contract for WTI unchanged at $68.77 per barrel. The February 2025 contract for Brent crude rose by 0.06% to $72.36 per barrel.
3. London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper up 0.19% at $9,018 per ton, LME zinc up 2.1% at $3,140 per ton, LME nickel down 0.6% at $15,900 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.4% at $2,602 per ton, LME tin down 3.02% at $28,030 per ton, and LME lead up 1.93% at $2,060 per ton.
4. The main contracts for agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed mixed, with soybean futures up 0.58% to $9.8925 per bushel; corn futures flat at $4.28 per bushel; and wheat futures down 1.75% to $5.4825 per bushel.
5. Domestic commodity futures closed for the night, with most energy and chemical products rising; rubber rose 2.57%, No. 20 rubber rose 2.21%, and crude oil fell 1.21%. The black series generally rose, with iron ore up 1.08%. Agricultural products had mixed gains and losses, with palm oil up 1.58%. Basic metals had mixed gains and losses, with Hu zinc up 1.86%, Hu lead up 1.02%, stainless steel up 0.38%, alumina up 0.32%, Hu copper down 0.2%, Hu nickel down 0.53%, Hu aluminum down 0.63%, and Hu tin down 1.73%. Hu gold rose 0.21%, and Hu silver fell 0.48%.
Black series hot news
1. According to SMM research, in November, 21 blast furnaces were actually undergoing maintenance, with a daily reduction in pig iron output of 99,000 tons, affecting the total pig iron output in December by 1.3292 million tons. At the same time, 11 blast furnaces resumed production, increasing daily pig iron output by 59,300 tons, which will increase the total pig iron output in December by 700,000 tons. Based on the existing data statistics, it is expected that maintenance of blast furnaces in December will affect the total pig iron volume by 6.2943 million tons.
2. According to Mysteel's research, there have been five blast furnaces in Shanxi Province that have been shut down for maintenance, with a maintenance volume of 4,270m³, affecting the daily pig iron output by approximately 13,500 tons, with a daily capacity utilization rate of 85.3%, a decrease of 2.4% compared to the previous period; 15 rolling lines have been shut down for maintenance, affecting daily output by approximately 63,500 tons. With the impact of autumn and winter air, there will be plans to increase maintenance efforts under the previous maintenance conditions, which is expected to begin in mid to late December.
3. According to Mysteel, Baosteel's December tender for electrolytic manganese (Baoshan base) is 12,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a purchase quantity of 2,600 tons; (Zhanjiang base) is 12,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a purchase quantity of 1,500 tons.
4. According to SMM research, on November 27, the operating rate of blast furnaces in 242 steel mills was 89.16%, a decrease of 0.67% month-on-month. The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 89.75%, a decrease of 0.80% month-on-month. The average daily pig iron output of the sample steel mills was 2.4 million tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons month-on-month.
5. According to Steel Valley Network, the national construction material social inventory is 4.4625 million tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from last week, up 1.62%; factory inventory is 3.3341 million tons, a decrease of 93,600 tons from last week, down 2.73%; production is 4.206 million tons, a decrease of 75,700 tons from last week, down 1.77%.
Hot news in agricultural products
1. The National Cotton Association of China announced in its weekly cotton purchase processing report that as of November 24, 2024, the cumulative processing volume of seed cotton nationwide reached 3.928 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22%. The cumulative processing volume in Xinjiang reached 3.867 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%. The cumulative processing volume in the mainland was 61,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%.
2. Data released by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries shows that as of the week ending November 20, Argentine farmers sold 351,400 tons of soybeans for the 2023/24 crop year, bringing the cumulative sales to 33.0532 million tons. Domestic oil mills purchased 334,100 tons, and the export sector purchased 17,300 tons. Argentine farmers also sold 40,500 tons of soybeans for the 2024/25 crop year, bringing cumulative sales to 1.7708 million tons.
3. According to Mysteel's agricultural product research, as of November 22, 2024, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports reached 4.058 million tons, an increase of 618,000 tons week-on-week; the total volume of corn shipped from the four northern ports that week was 984,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons week-on-week.
4. The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association (COPA) reported that Canada’s canola crush volume in October 2024 was 1,101,402.0 tons, up 18.04% month-on-month; canola oil production was 459,220.0 tons, up 16.3% month-on-month; canola meal production was 648,271.0 tons, up 19.07% month-on-month.
5. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data indicating that private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tons of soybeans to China, to be delivered in the 2024/2025 crop year. The U.S. soybean marketing year begins on September 1.
6. The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) reported that in the first half of November, sugar production in Brazil's central-southern region reached 898,000 tons, a decrease of 59.2% compared to the same period last year. Sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 52.8% year-on-year to 16.46 million tons. Ethanol production was 1.06 billion liters.
7. The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) predicts based on shipping schedule data that from November 24 to November 30, Brazil's soybean export volume will be 660,800 tons, up from 483,100 tons last week.
Energy and chemical hot news
1. According to the Japan Petroleum Association (PAJ), as of the week ending November 23, Japan's kerosene inventory fell by 36,000 kiloliters to 2.69 million kiloliters. Japan's naphtha inventory rose by 270,000 kiloliters to 1.63 million kiloliters. Japan's gasoline inventory rose by 120,000 kiloliters to 1.88 million kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 79.3%, compared to 78.2% for the week ending November 16. Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 350,000 kiloliters to 9.84 million kiloliters.
2. The latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE shows that for the week ending November 25, the total inventory of finished oil in Fujairah Port was 14.235 million barrels, a decrease of 2.531 million barrels from the previous week. Among them, light distillate oil inventory increased by 123,000 barrels to 582,300 barrels, medium distillate oil inventory increased by 222,000 barrels to 214,100 barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.876 million barrels to 627,100 barrels.
3. According to Longzhong Information, as of November 27, 2024, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.177 million tons, a decrease of 98,700 tons from the previous period. Among them, the East China region saw a decrease of 101,100 tons; the South China region saw an increase of 2,400 tons.
4. An investor asked on the interactive platform: With downstream demand declining and prices under pressure, does the company have any production reduction plans? Yuanxing Energy responded that the company currently has no production reduction plans; the Alashan natural soda project is operating normally.
5. The EIA report shows that for the week ending November 22, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, decreased by 1.844 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a decline of 0.43%, which was greater than the market expectation of a decrease of 605,000 barrels. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks increased by 1.172 million barrels to 39.04 million barrels, an increase of 0.3%, the highest level since the week of November 18, 2022.
Metal hot news
1. According to the website of the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 to 24, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.638 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29% compared to the same period last November, and an increase of 4% compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales so far this year have reached 19.474 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5%.
2. According to SMM, a large-scale recycled lead smelting plant in Jiangsu Province is undergoing annual routine maintenance, and the refined lead smelting process will soon be suspended, reducing daily output by approximately 600 tons. A large-scale recycled lead smelting plant in Shandong Province is preparing to resume production and has started purchasing waste batteries, with furnace heating expected to begin in the next day or two.
3. According to the Regulations on the Management of Designated Delivery Warehouses for Lithium Carbonate Futures, it has been decided to add designated delivery factories for lithium carbonate futures, and to increase the maximum amount of standard warehouse receipts for Rongjie Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. at No. 18, Yangzong 7th Road, Tianfu New Area, Qionglai City, Chengdu, Sichuan Province from 300 tons to 600 tons.
4. According to data from the London Metal Exchange (LME), after two days of significant reductions, the available zinc inventory in LME-approved warehouses fell by 38%, reaching its lowest level in a year. Previously, inventory holders issued notices planning to withdraw a large amount of zinc.
Kua Kua 'Period' Talk - Unveiling the Trading Logic of Varieties!
1. The short-term market may experience overselling; how to plan for the European line in the future?
Haitong Futures Analysis points out that based on the current fundamentals and research feedback, freight rates are expected to continue to rise steadily, maintaining a high range of about $5000-5500; accelerated shipment before the festival may alleviate the capacity pressure reflected in the January schedule. The current position of the 02 contract at 2700 points reflects a level of about $3700 for large containers; the integer position of 2000 points corresponds to a level of about $2800 for large containers. For reference, the lowest value of the SCFIS European line index in the second half of the year is 2205 points in the 42nd week, equivalent to about $3100 for large containers. Under the recent pessimistic sentiment, the market's reaction to the peak and subsequent decline of January freight rates has been overly pessimistic, and attention can be paid to the long allocation attributes present after the oversold condition of the 02 contract.
2. Significant increase in positions raises concerns about soft squeezing, can Hu zinc still go long?
Zhonghui Futures Analysis indicates that overall, short-term overseas geopolitical risks are easing, market risk preferences are recovering, and favorable domestic real estate policies are emerging frequently, with the market waiting for more macro guidance. In terms of fundamentals, the ongoing tight supply of zinc concentrate continues to constrain demand, concerns about zinc ingot supply remain, while zinc ingot demand is quite elastic. Although zinc ingot is entering a consumption off-season in the short term, the market still has expectations for economic policy stimulus, coupled with short-term domestic and foreign zinc ingot inventory reduction, the market worries about soft squeezing risks in the near term. The main contract increased positions by 35,000 hands yesterday, and the short-term zinc price surge has begun to detach from the fundamentals, mainly influenced by capital speculation and soft squeezing expectations. Caution is advised regarding the negative feedback effect of high zinc prices on demand and the risk of high zinc prices falling due to a stronger dollar, suggesting active short positions to lock in profits.
Overview of today's important futures data and events
1. On November 28 at 20:00, Conab will announce the results of its third sugarcane production survey for Brazil's 2024/25 crop year. The second sugarcane production survey by Conab indicated that Brazil's sugar production for the 2024/25 crushing season is expected to be 45.996 million tons, lower than the 46.292 million tons projected in April; Brazil's sugarcane production for the 2024/25 crushing season is expected to be 689.8 million tons, higher than the 685.9 million tons projected in April. Attention should be paid to the adjustments regarding sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production based on this survey result.
2. Due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will be closed for one day on November 28, and trading of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, and raw sugar will be suspended. Trading of precious metals and U.S. crude oil futures contracts under CME will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on November 29. Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under ICE will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on November 24.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data