Macroeconomic Interpretation: At 3 a.m. today, the Fed released meeting minutes indicating that officials expect future rate cuts but will proceed gradually. They are optimistic about easing inflation and strong performance in the labor market, providing room for further rate cuts, but emphasize that the cuts will be gradual. The minutes noted that economic activity continues to expand steadily, job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate has risen but remains low, and inflation has significantly eased from peak levels, yet core inflation remains high. Officials believe it is appropriate to continue reducing the Fed's securities holdings, and if data aligns with expectations, inflation continues to decline to 2%, and the economy approaches maximum employment levels, a gradual shift to a more neutral policy stance may be appropriate. Some officials warned that if the process of improving inflation stalls, the pace of rate cuts may slow or even pause. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicates that the market expects a roughly 63% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December.
From our perspective, the recent Fed meeting minutes conveyed several key signals that are significant for future investment layouts: The Fed's adjustment of the federal funds rate target range to 4.50%-4.75% in early November aligns with market expectations and demonstrates the Fed's flexibility and foresight in monetary policy. Rate cuts help lower corporate financing costs, enhance market liquidity, and support economic growth. The minutes emphasized that future rate cuts will be implemented in a 'gradual' and 'cautious' manner. This indicates that the Fed will fully consider changes in the economic situation during the rate-cutting process to avoid excessive easing that could lead to inflation rebound or asset bubbles. For investors, this means that the future market environment will be relatively stable.
At the same time, the meeting minutes mentioned that the labor market remains robust, but the pace of job growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has risen. This change, while putting some pressure on economic growth, also provides room for future rate cuts. Investors can pay attention to companies and sectors that benefit from rate cut policies, such as U.S. stocks, gold, and our crypto market. In addition, the minutes also pointed out that inflation has significantly eased from peak levels, but it will still take time to reach the 2% target level. This means that in future investment layouts, attention needs to be paid to the trend of inflation changes and its impact on the prices of various assets in the global market.
Data Analysis: Through CoinAnk data, we can see a significant decrease in the number of long-term holding addresses. We generally refer to addresses holding for over 155 days as long-term holders. Statistics show that during the price peak of this cycle, long-term holders sold over 200,000 BTC, and in the past 30 days, the selling volume reached as high as 728,000 BTC.
Regarding this selling behavior, we believe that as BTC prices continue to rise, long-term holders may have reached their profit targets and thus choose to sell to lock in profits. Although BTC prices have reached an all-time high, there is still uncertainty in the market. Long-term holders may adopt a cautious attitude towards future market trends, hence choosing to sell to reduce risks. The $100,000 mark is regarded as a psychologically significant selling point. Many investors may believe that at this price level, BTC is already overvalued, and thus choose to sell to avoid potential correction risks.
The sell-off has also had a significant impact on the market, as the selling behavior of long-term holders may lead to a correction in BTC prices. As the selling volume increases, the supply-demand relationship in the market changes, making price declines possible. Selling behavior may weaken market confidence. When a large number of long-term holders choose to sell, other investors may become skeptical about the market outlook, further exacerbating price declines. Selling behavior may lead to increased market volatility. With price fluctuations, investor sentiment may change, leading to sharp market fluctuations.
BTC Technical Analysis:
BTC continued to fluctuate and declined yesterday, rebounding to around 90,800, aligning with our previous prediction that 'a relatively important concentration of chips is distributed below $91,000, close to the first support level.' After the dollar index's bullish factors were realized, a correction occurred, and U.S. stocks rebounded overnight, but BTC was more affected by HODL selling and net outflow of ETF funds.
According to CoinAnk's main chip distribution chart, a short-term rebound occurred below the support level of $91,000. The four-hour top divergence repair is basically complete; however, the daily death cross is still ongoing, and after the rebound repair, a correction trend is expected to appear. Important support levels are around $87,000 and $85,000. Resistance levels above are around $96,500, recent highs in the $98,870-$99,588 range, and the historical all-time high.
Text: laolibtc
CoinAnk Data
