The BTC rate is realizing the rebound mentioned yesterday by the end of the day. The signals of a potential low are developing on the four-hour timeframe. Since the closing of the last reversal candle, there has been +2.1% growth. The trend resistance of the decline since November 25 has been broken. The price has reached a more important trend resistance from October 25 (indicated by a dashed line).
The key resistance we consider was and remains the EMA 50 of the four-hour timeframe. Currently, it is $94,443.
Will there be a breakout this time after four (!) unsuccessful attempts?
We want to draw attention to several signals from our indicator. However, the variability of the sequence and the degree of their play out is currently very high. We will give our scenario variant at the end.
And for now, the signals:
1. On the four-hour timeframe, the mentioned scenario of a potential low is continuing to play out. Here there can be either an early reversal from the mentioned resistances or a maintenance of the trend with growth potential at least until the end of the day.
2. On the higher 12-hour timeframe - signals of a potential low. Currently, this is the second of three possible signals. This does not mean that the price is expected to reverse to $100,000. But overall, this is an important signal. The last such signal was before the 'Trump pump'. However, on the third signal (that is, by the end of the day), the price may be pushed significantly lower. It is important not to react to the signal prematurely. The descending impulse within the day may stretch if there is an expressive reaction from sellers at the EMA 50 of the four-hour timeframe.
3. Signals of a potential high on even higher daily, two-day, weekly timeframes - still arguments for a correction/range in the coming weeks.
That is, many clarifications will come from the signals by the end of the day; there is a lot of uncertainty now. Meanwhile, the EMA 50 of the four-hour timeframe is currently the watershed.
In case of a successful breakout attempt and consolidation above it today-tomorrow - we expect growth to significant levels of $95,665 and, at most, $97,553.
In case of an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above this moving average today-tomorrow - we expect a resumption of the correction, a breakout of the important volume level of $91,306, and a move below the psychological $90,000. Then, according to volume levels, the nearest targets are $89,365 and $87,684. The maximum target for the correction is still considered to be the level of $84,737, with the removal of liquidity below the low of November 12.
Overall, the expectation remains the same - a range in a wide range in the coming weeks. Against the background of the continuing rise of the Volatility Index of the price of #BTC this week. The reversal on it is confirmed; the timeframe for the reverse correction has been adjusted - December 2-4. Until these dates, we expect an increase in volatility. It may be more serious than from November 5 to 16.