The market fear index has reached a low point again. Long-term observation suggests that it is still very necessary to restart a comprehensive analysis of future trends for everyone.
Here, let's first discuss Ethereum, which is also the main culprit behind everyone's recent suffering. As the most developed decentralized cryptocurrency to date, does its current technology really warrant its 'second place'? Currently, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is extremely close to a historical low of 0.039, during which Vitalik Buterin helplessly called for ETH, but how many in the market took it seriously? The spot Ethereum is flowing out endlessly, and the performance of the ETH Foundation is even more regrettable. With the launch of L2, mainnet upgrades, and reduced on-chain GAS revenue, DeFi has also become somewhat paralyzed. Although Ethereum is still thinking about how to improve its infrastructure, the future is truly hard to predict.
Let's get back to the thought process.
First, from the market sentiment perspective, it can be seen that most KOLs have changed from calling for a rise to 70,000 yesterday to calling for a decline today.
48,000. As the market's watchdog, they have indeed succeeded; the local market has begun to panic, causing those who dared to go long at 61,000-63,000 to hesitate at 58,000. Here, the intentions of the middle players begin to manifest, and the market starts to turn towards a bearish layout.
From a technical perspective, this round's downward target of 48,000 is merely based on the shift of multi-day moving averages; there is no support below, so we look towards previous lows. But could it really be that simple? Indeed, from the weekly structure, the resistance at the moving averages encounters a reversal, with the goal directly pointing to 50,000. But if one looks favorably at the technicals, does that mean viewing the cryptocurrency market too simply? From the chip distribution perspective, this round of decline has completed the clearing of concentrated chips at lower levels; further downward movement would only mean lower-leveraged chips, so why bother? Would a whale really drop to 50,000 just to give you opportunities to add positions in the spot market or leverage? And then let the short positions earn a windfall? Even to the extent of saying that the long-prepared bull market is 'stillborn'?
At this time, from a macro perspective, a series of favorable market factors that everyone expects have yet to materialize. As a script that has been played out for so long, its goal is not merely to retain the existing cryptocurrency market but to invite an influx like the frenzied bull market of 2021. Isn't it equivalent to self-sabotage to have such an untimely drop of ten thousand points right before the historical cycle? Of course, a waterfall decline will come, but it absolutely will not be now.
In combination, this reflects the current long-term view: although the low point of this round of decline seems precarious, it obviously exists as a bottom. In the short term, the market will revolve around this low point, creating several rounds of downward probing to create an illusion of bearish pressure, but it will not refresh the previous low point. This will make even those who maintain a bullish stance afraid to buy in at the original point, and make those who are bearish more resolute in their views; thus, the goal is achieved.
