$BTC Price adjustments or continued decline below $88,000, if its trend remains associated with the global M2 money supply. Since failing to hold the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin has experienced over a 9% adjustment in the past four days. This adjustment may continue, serving as a cooling-off period in Bitcoin's rise, backed by profit-taking behavior from long-term holders.
The close correlation between Bitcoin's price and the global M2 money supply.
Historically, Bitcoin's trend has always maintained a certain rapport with the global M2 money supply, and the recent adjustment is no exception, moving in step with changes in global liquidity. Joe Consorti pointed out that since September 2023, Bitcoin's price volatility has lagged the M2 supply by about 70 days. In his recent update, he emphasized the precision of this correlation, noting that Bitcoin's price fell $5,000 in one day, aligning with the trend of the global M2 money supply from weeks ago.
Consorti warns that if this trend continues, Bitcoin could drop 20% to 25% from its recent high of $99,000. However, he remains cautious, stating, 'We still need to observe whether Bitcoin will continue to follow the global M2 money supply trend or will find support and stabilize at some point.'
The open contract volume for Bitcoin has fallen below $6 billion, while the options open contract volume surged by 34% before expiration on Friday, reaching $5.92 billion. As market sentiment cools, other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin are also showing a downward trend.
On-chain data for Bitcoin reveals fatigue.
Activity among long-term holders has increased, with selling pressure reaching a high of 366,000 Bitcoins per month, the highest level of long-term holders selling since April 2024. Since the supply from long-term holders peaked in September, this group has sold 507,000 Bitcoins. Although this number is considerable, it remains small compared to the 934,000 Bitcoins sold during the historical peak in March 2024.
Could Bitcoin's price plummet below $88,000?
As Bitcoin's price breaks the important support level of $94,000, some begin to predict lower target prices, such as $88,000, or even $80,000.
Besides the global M2 money supply, Justin Bennett also pointed out the key liquidity areas for Bitcoin. In the past 30 days, the largest Bitcoin liquidity block was near $73,000, which is where Bitcoin's price began to rise to the $100,000 mark. Bennett noted that as long as Bitcoin stays below $93,600, $86,000 and $73,000 are key price levels to watch.
Data from the prediction market Kalshi indicates that the probability of Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 milestone has dropped from 92% to 64%. Meanwhile, the probability of Bitcoin's price reaching $100,000 by the end of November has plummeted from 88% to 18% in the past four days. The stock price of MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has also dropped 35% in four days.
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