Reviewing Contract Trading Ideas in the Context of a Bull Market:
Prerequisite Background: Intra-day, my trading cycle is 5min, reference cycle is 20min
1. Current Issues:
In the past two weeks, the major market has experienced significant fluctuations in the small cycle, leading to easy stop losses. I know that my system is more suited for bear markets, as bear market fluctuations are relatively regular and more aligned with the conditions of my system.
I am a right-side trader, usually waiting for clear signals (such as a Pinbar or entry candlestick in the 1-minute or 5-minute cycle) before entering a trade. However, bull market conditions move quickly, often causing either a missed entry or a risk-reward ratio that is too low, lacking a mathematical advantage.
During this period, I tried left-side orders. Left-side orders are relatively easier; I usually place them at conservative positions, but the issue is that the market moves too quickly, pullbacks are short, and there are few opportunities to take orders;
Of course, if the order is taken, the risk-reward ratio is usually good, but bull markets fluctuate greatly (jumping up and down), making it easy to hit stop losses, especially in the small cycle.
2. Adjustments to My Operations:
I have seen some KOL communities advocating broader stop losses in the bull market; for example, determining position size based on loss will not be too large, with a risk-reward ratio generally controlled around 1.5, which is indeed a way to maintain win rates (conventional win rate around 80%);
As for me, I have higher demands on the “risk-reward ratio” than on the “win rate,” so I am currently adjusting to:
1. Expand my reference cycle: from 20min to 1H or 4H;
2. Place orders or enter the market at market price in areas of strong reaction in my system (adjusting the entry cycle to 5min or 15min, instead of 1min);
I believe that contract trading still emphasizes ?post-market? or floating profit, ideally avoiding holding trades with floating losses, which may also be a reason for conservativeness. Although some opportunities may be missed, maintaining the consistency of the system is quite important;
Additionally, I would like to share some common bull market contract entry patterns:
1. Breakout of the descending trendline, so-called bull flag breakout for long positions, especially observing entry after the second or third pullback;
2. Entering on breakout of previous highs (this is similar to structural breakouts in ICT), especially better if at key resistance levels; otherwise, it may occur frequently.
The key is still to focus on a time frame that suits your situation and stick to your operations, believing that it will be profitable and should yield decent returns!
The above is only my personal opinion.