President Donald Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to control federal spending, which reached a staggering $6.75 trillion in the last fiscal year, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). That's like handing every American $20,000 in cash and still being in debt.

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy say they can cut $2 trillion, but the issue here is: DOGE has no real power. This is a private advisory group that can only make proposals that Congress may or may not consider.

In addition to the scale of federal spending and the politics surrounding it, DOGE is shaping up to be Elon’s most questionable project to date. Let’s analyze why this whole thing looks like a rocket crash.

Government Spending Is Too Large to Cut

The U.S. budget is dominated by mandatory spending, which accounts for about three-quarters of federal money. This category is not up for debate in Congress each year. It includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest payments on federal debt. Last year, these costs alone totaled $4.89 trillion.

Social Security costs $1.45 trillion. Medicare and Medicaid combined total $1.49 trillion. These programs are not only large; they are untouchable. Trump himself has promised to protect Social Security and Medicare.

That makes Medicaid a potential target, but cutting it is not as simple as slashing numbers in a spreadsheet. According to the CBO, 56% of Medicaid benefits in 2024 will go to the elderly, the blind, and the disabled. Many nursing homes rely heavily on Medicaid payments to stay operational.

Any effort to cut welfare risks inciting political backlash. And if we're honest, no one in Washington wants to explain why they can no longer afford nursing home bills. Interest payments are another black hole for cash.

The U.S. government spent $950 billion last year just to pay interest on its $33 trillion debt. This figure is nearly equivalent to the entire defense budget. With rising interest rates, this cost is expected to double over the next decade. DOGE cannot just snap its fingers and fix that.

Discretionary Spending Will Not Save the Situation

So, what else is there to cut? Discretionary spending. This is the money that Congress votes on each year and is divided into two categories: defense and non-defense programs. Last year, defense spending reached $850 billion. This money funds everything from buying aircraft carriers to supporting 1.4 million active-duty personnel. Good luck convincing Congress to cut defense spending in an era of increasing global tensions.

Non-defense discretionary spending includes everything else: NASA, housing programs, education grants, farm subsidies—name it. This category totaled $950 billion last year. Critics often target these programs when calling for budget cuts.

But the issue here is that all discretionary spending combined only accounts for 14% of the total budget. Even if DOGE eliminated all non-defense programs, it still couldn't cut $2 trillion.

Federal employees are another target. According to the White House Office of Management and Budget, federal employee salaries and benefits cost $384 billion last year. There are about 2.3 million civilian employees working for the executive branch, not including postal workers.

One-fifth of them work for the Department of Veterans Affairs. Added to that are military personnel, with total payroll reaching $584 billion. Job cuts sound great until you realize it only scratches the surface of the deficit.

Debt Is a Real Problem

Let's talk about the elephant in the room: debt. Total federal revenue, or the amount the government collected from taxes last year, was $4.92 trillion. This figure is $1.83 trillion less than what the government spent. This gap (budget deficit) represents 6.4% of the U.S. GDP.

And this is not a new issue. During the pandemic, the deficit-to-GDP ratio reached 15%. Traditionally, deficits at this level only occur during crises like World War II or major economic recessions.

The federal government borrows money to cover these deficits. Over time, the debt grows. Currently, the U.S. is facing a total debt of $33 trillion. The CBO predicts that mandatory spending will increase by more than $2 trillion in the next decade, while interest payments will double.

These trends make it nearly impossible for DOGE to make meaningful cuts without addressing the underlying debt issue.

Elon and Vivek Ramaswamy Are Unconventional Leaders

Then there's the question of leadership ability. Elon is a tech genius, but running an effective government program is a whole different issue. He's busy managing Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and other projects. How much time can he actually dedicate to DOGE?

Meanwhile, Ramaswamy is known for his biotechnology background and a politically libertarian stance. Neither has significant experience navigating the federal budget or the complexities of government programs. Critics argue that their success in the private sector does not necessarily translate to public sector expertise. The federal budget is a web of rules, obligations, and inherent interests.

Public perception is very important. If people don't value DOGE, Congress won't either. And so far, the response has been quite lukewarm. Many see DOGE as a frivolous project of Elon and Ramaswamy rather than a serious effort to tackle the deficit. Ultimately, DOGE faces a tough battle on all fronts.

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