Bitcoin has currently dropped from a peak of 99,558 USD to around 91,000 USD, a pullback of nearly 9,000 points, about 10%.

Recently, the long positions in contracts have been quite miserable.

Blowing up the leveraged long positions will benefit the subsequent rise after the pullback. This pullback is expected not to be too much; the shortest might be a week, the longest about half a month, and it will likely reverse in a V shape.

Market news.

1. Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that it is not institutions or Bitcoin spot ETFs that have caused the price drop; data shows that long-term holders are responsible for the price decline.

This pullback occurred after Bitcoin set the largest monthly K-line in history, first breaking 99,000 USD on November 22. Some analysts still expect Bitcoin to break 100,000 USD before the end of this month, setting a new historical high.

Cryptocurrency trader and technical analyst Kvle du Plessis stated, 'Long-term holders of Bitcoin have sold 128,000 BTC, but the US spot ETF has absorbed 90% of the selling pressure.

Strong institutional demand is driving Bitcoin upwards, pushing it towards the 100,000 USD milestone.

2. Data tracked by Glassnode shows that as Bitcoin's price approaches 100,000 USD, all 14 million BTC held by long-term holders have entered a profit state, which has accelerated selling activities, causing a decline of over 200,000 BTC in non-small balances since the historical peak was broken.

Long-term holders begin to take profits when prices are strong and demand is sufficient to absorb them. During this process, ETFs play a key role, absorbing over 90% of the selling pressure from long-term holders.

However, as unrealized profits reach more extreme levels, it is expected that more long-term holders will accelerate selling, and in the short term, this selling has exceeded the inflow of ETFs.

However, since a large amount of Bitcoin is still held by long-term holders, many may be waiting for a higher price before releasing more Bitcoin back into the circulating market.

3. David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, stated that although '100,000 USD' is a nice round number, it feels like this number has become a high threshold for Bitcoin investors to take further profits, even an obstacle.

If Bitcoin starts to fall from now, it may reflect everything presented by the market, especially if long-term holders decide to cash out early.

However, David Morrison also pointed out that Bitcoin's upward momentum is very likely to accumulate enough energy to push the price above the 100,000 USD mark. Once this resistance level is broken, it may trigger further increases in Bitcoin.

Some are confused; aren't long-term holders all firm believers in BTC? What I want to say is that firmness also has a price; there is no holding that never sells.

As long as the price is right, it will definitely be sold, for example, selling could dramatically change your current life, or after selling, achieving financial freedom.

Regarding price pullbacks.

On November 13, I started posting (10,000 points up in 2 days, crazy Bitcoin, can we chase it?!)! This was the first warning that a short-term pullback might exist, and I listed a set of data to analyze it in detail for my brothers.

Among them, several important indicators of market overheating were mentioned.

1. USDT lending annualized.

By checking the annualized interest rate of USDT lending in OKEx, we can find that the annualized rate has currently reached 43%. If this rate can be sustained, then simply converting RMB to USDT can yield a risk-free annualized return of 43%. Why bother trading other coins.

2. RSI daily has reached 94.

This number is close to its maximum value of 100, indicating that the market is experiencing severe overbought phenomena. Historically, the price of coins tends to start a pullback 90% of the time.

3. The greed and fear index has also reached 80%. It tells you to 'buy in fear and sell in greed', 'buy when no one cares, sell when the crowd cheers'.

On November 16, I posted (Late-night plunge! Bitcoin starts to pull back, should we sell now?) for the second time warning of a pullback. On that day, I said that as Bitcoin reached the height of 93,000, the old investors understood that this was a hurdle, a short-term peak.

On November 19, I posted (Is the tightening spell on? BTC can't move anymore?) for the third time to warn that a pullback is imminent. At that time, I mentioned that historically, the FGI fear and greed index was in extreme greed, which also cannot last.

The most recent was on November 24, when I posted (BTC, when will the crash pullback come?) stating that the entire network is waiting for a crash pullback. The fear and greed index reached a terrifying 94; while a crash might not be seen, a pullback of around 10,000 points is definitely coming. The price of coins has never just gone up continuously, nor has it ever just gone down continuously.

I have repeatedly reminded that if you are doing short contracts, you should be prepared to run away early. If you are in for the long term and your position is not full, you should get ready with your bullets to wait for more investments.

For us long-term investors, what we least want to see is a rise, especially a crazy rise, which short-term mindsets will never understand.

Even if there is a short-term risk warning, it is not an excuse for us long-term holders to short sell; it will only become our reason to seize the opportunity to add positions.

Investing must have a broad perspective to firmly and steadily take every step in the cycle, thus having a better chance to gain more. One must not lose sight of the goal and fall into the trap of speculation, getting lost in the process of getting on and off the bus before reaching the destination.

Our every micro-operation is based on macro-cognitive large cycles; only by continuously improving our own cognition can we resist being harvested and complete the transformation of low cognition harvesting, becoming the few who profit in the market.

Life is vast, but love remains unchanged. Calm down, don't rush or be anxious; if there is an opportunity, seize it; if not, wait; the opportunity is always there.

Walking with ink, preaching web3, I am Xi Mo, a guide dedicated to bringing you into the web3 industry, turning the main job into a side job, the side job into unemployment (financial freedom), and allowing assets to appreciate after achieving financial freedom. This is the goal I tirelessly pursue with all my efforts.

A year ago, we created a web3 private wealth reading book for paid students, named Xi Mo's Crypto Perspective, which contains over 1,000 pages recording a collection of 320,000 words on crypto wealth. Now I am giving it to you for free.

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