While various market data has reached historical highs, market sentiment remains optimistic.
Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
Bitcoin did not break through the $100,000 mark as the market wished, peaking at $99,588 on November 23 before turning down. BTC dipped as low as around $92,300. Ethereum fell from $3,546 to around $3,300, and SOL also dropped to around $230.
In terms of contract data, Coinglass shows that the total liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours amounted to $528 million, of which long positions accounted for $386 million.
BTC has been unable to break through the $100,000 mark, where does the selling pressure come from? Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are selling to the market at a rate of 366,000 coins per month, reaching the highest level since April 2024, with profit-taking gradually occurring.
After a major correction in Bitcoin, will it continue to decline, or will it make another attempt to challenge the $100,000 mark after a brief cooldown? During the market's doubt, it is worth reviewing the performance of 5 important data points to find out.
Bitcoin spot ETF data remains quite strong
Since the beginning of November, Bitcoin spot ETF data has only seen a decline for 5 days, while net inflows have occurred for 11 days, with the average daily net inflow exceeding $600 million.
Currently, the cumulative total inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF has reached $30.16 billion, with yesterday's total trading volume reaching as high as $5.61 billion.
Total market capitalization of stablecoins continues to reach historical highs
DefiLlama's latest data shows that the total market capitalization of stablecoins has reached a historical high of $189.91 billion, with a 7-day increase of 3.28%. Among them, USDT's monthly increase reached 10.77%, USDC's monthly increase reached 12.59%, and USDe's monthly increase even reached 48.63%.
In terms of specific data, USDT's market capitalization rose strongly from $120.4 billion at the beginning of November to $132.5 billion, an increase of $12.1 billion in less than a month.
USDC's market capitalization has increased from $34.7 billion at the beginning of this month to $39 billion now, with an inflow of about $4.3 billion. The highest market capitalization for USDC was $55.8 billion in June 2022, and there is still some distance to go.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has exceeded $3.2 trillion, setting a new historical high
In the last cycle of the cryptocurrency industry, the market capitalization reached a historical peak of $2.86 trillion in November 2021. This month, the cryptocurrency market has warmed up and risen, breaking through the $3 trillion mark and continuing to rise to above $3.2 trillion, with a total trading volume reaching $242.14 billion.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate rose to 0.0362
The total market capitalization of Bitcoin also dropped from a high of over 60% to below 58%, while Ethereum and altcoin market capitalizations began to slowly rise, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate climbing from a historical low of 0.03187 to 0.0362. Ethereum ecosystem projects performed strongly during this Bitcoin correction, with ARB/BTC dropping slightly from 0.00001 to 0.0000946, OP/BTC from 0.00002537 to 0.00002398, LDO/BTC from 0.00001875 to 0.00001743, and ETHFI/BTC from 0.00002444 to 0.00002237.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum contract open positions have reached historical highs
Today, the open positions of Ethereum contracts across the network broke through $21.5 billion, reaching $21.508 billion, setting a new historical high, with a 24-hour increase approaching 6%.
On November 22, the open positions of Bitcoin contracts across the network once exceeded $64 billion, setting a historical high, but has since dropped back to $61.79 billion today.
Since July this year, Bitcoin contract open positions have been continuously rising, breaking through $20 billion and hovering around $30 to $40 billion, eventually surpassing $60 billion in November, with market sentiment gradually becoming optimistic.
Future market trends
Currently, the Polymarket website shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this month has dropped to below 25%.
What will the future market trend be? Recently, multiple institutions and founders have commented. CryptoQuant's CEO stated in today's tweet that even in a parabolic bull market, Bitcoin will experience a 30% adjustment, as seen in 2021 when Bitcoin prices repeatedly corrected from $17,000 to $64,000.
Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz stated that due to high market leverage, Bitcoin may experience a maximum 20% correction after breaking $100,000, but the lower limit could be around $80,000.
Matrixport indicates that last week BlackRock launched Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) options, receiving a warm market response with active trading volume and steadily increasing open interest, suggesting that investors' expectations for Bitcoin's future rise are strengthening.
