Original title: (After multiple attempts at the $100,000 price level, where will the market go next? | WTR 11.25)
Original source: WTR Research Institute
Weekly Review
From November 11 to November 18 this week, the highest price of the ice-sugar orange was about $99,588, and the lowest was close to $80,215, with a fluctuation range of about 24.15%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a significant amount of chip transactions around 90,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• Analysis: 1. 69000-73000 about 561,000; 2. 87000-91000 about 468,500; • The probability of not breaking below 87000-91000 in the short term is 70%; • Among them, the probability of not breaking above 100000-105000 in the short term is 60%.
Important news aspect
Economic news aspect
1. The latest report released by the U.S. independent research agency, the Federal Budget Accountability Committee, indicates that the total amount of U.S. government debt has surpassed $36 trillion this week, reaching a record high.
2. By the end of July this year, the total amount of U.S. government debt reached $35 trillion, and it has now risen to $36 trillion in just over three months.
3. European Central Bank council member Kazaks stated: Given the current situation of the European economy, another rate cut must occur in December. The European Central Bank has already cut rates three times, and another cut is expected next month. The PMI data released last Friday indicated an unexpected contraction in the eurozone's private sector economy, with the market betting that the bank may cut rates further by 50 basis points.
Cryptocurrency ecosystem news aspect
1. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that BTC may reach $100,000 by the end of this year and $250,000 by the end of 2025. He advises those experiencing a bull market for the first time to remain rational and cash out at the right time. If one always holds the mindset of 'I can earn more', it will ultimately lead to losing the wealth already possessed!
2. Rick Wurster, president of Charles Schwab Corp., stated in an interview with Bloomberg Radio: Once U.S. regulations allow, the company will consider offering spot cryptocurrency trading. When changes occur in the U.S. regulatory environment, the company will enter the spot cryptocurrency field and is preparing for this possibility.
3. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the current BTC market has not yet entered a bubble stage. In terms of realized market value, compared to cumulative inflows on-chain, the growth rate of market value is not significant. Based on the steady upward trend of the current realized market value, there is still room for price increases, with a target of $141,000.
Last week, BTC ETF inflows totaled $3.376 billion, of which BlackRock's IBIT received $2.054 billion and Fidelity's FBTC received $0.773 billion.
5. On November 21, BTC's market share rose to about 60% at the high of this cycle, and this week, BTC's market share fell to about 56%, while other coins' market cap share significantly increased, and prices began to recover.
6. Cointelegraph data shows that since November 2024, stablecoin issuer Tether has added over $15 billion in stablecoin.
Long-term insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face short-term observations: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain events occurring under specific premises.
Long-term insights
• Ratio of long-term to short-term investors' chips • Large transfers on exchanges • Whale positions with over 1000 addresses • Non-liquid whales
(See chart for ratio of long-term to short-term investors' chips)
Long-term investors are selling chips, but the amount sold is not significant and has not shaken the market structure. Short-term speculators are actively entering the market and taking on chips.
(See chart for large transfers on exchanges)
From the perspective of large transfers on exchanges, large outflows have begun to initially decline. This means that the strong willingness to purchase is showing signs of slowing down.
(See chart for whale positions with over 1000 addresses)
Generally, whales are starting to slightly sell off their chips, from this perspective, the market price of $100,000 is not particularly easy to break through. It may take some time.
(See chart for non-liquid whales)
The group of whales has not changed much recently, and they are still choosing to increase their holdings at this juncture.
Mid-term exploration
• Network sentiment positivity • Whale comprehensive scoring model • Short-term profit percentage composite model • Cost structure at various price levels • ETH circulation ratio on exchanges
(See chart for network sentiment positivity)
Network sentiment has recently shown signs of slowing growth, indicating that the sentiment of market participants may be slightly slowing down.
(See chart for whale comprehensive scoring model)
The recent rating of whales remains 'very high', indicating that this group still has a relatively strong holding willingness.
(See chart for short-term profit percentage composite model)
Generally, when the profit-taking ratio of short-term participants reaches over 95%, the market may face certain pressure or resistance, affecting the continuity of the subsequent price trend for some time.
But recently there has been a significant increase in incremental supply, with a continuous influx of capital, which means that the pressure generated by the profit-taking effect of short-term participants has not had a profound impact.
Recently, there has also been a situation where the profit-taking ratio of short-term participants is too high, which may cause certain pressure and resistance in the near term.
(See chart for cost structure at various price levels)
The upward pressure at the current price level is above 95,000-98,000, which may lead to intensified fluctuations due to fierce competition in that area in the short term.
Of course, the market's lower price level has currently risen to around 64,000, and it may need to be reassessed based on the dynamics within the market, for instance, the current downward space expectation can be appropriately raised.
(See chart for ETH circulation ratio on exchanges)
ETH's circulation ratio on exchanges has slightly increased, indicating a slight rise in the market's risk appetite, and its volatility may also increase.
Short-term observation
• Derivatives risk coefficient • Options intent transaction ratio • Derivatives trading volume • Options implied volatility • Profit and loss transfer volume • New addresses and active addresses • Ice-sugar orange net positions on exchanges • Auntie net positions on exchanges • High-weight selling pressure • Global purchasing power status • Stablecoin exchange net positions • Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is in the red zone, and the risk in derivatives is increasing.
(See chart for derivatives risk coefficient)
The liquidation of short positions in derivatives has not increased with this market surge; instead, it has decreased compared to the last surge, indicating that more market momentum comes from incremental rather than existing positions.
So even though the derivatives risk coefficient is in the red and liquidation risks are continuously accumulating, it is possible that even the liquidation magnitude will not be too large in the near future.
(See chart for options intent transaction ratio)
The ratio of put options is at a high level, while trading volume is at a low level.
(See chart for derivatives trading volume)
Last week, it was mentioned that the market was brewing for the next wave of volatility, and subsequently, the market rose again. This week, derivatives have again declined, waiting for the next wave of volatility.
(See chart for options implied volatility)
Options implied volatility has not shown significant changes.
Sentiment status rating: Greed
(See chart for profit and loss transfer volume)
Market positive sentiment has again reached a new annual high and has broken through the new high again.
(See chart for new addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at a very high level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Both BTC and ETH are in a state of large outflows.
(See chart for ice-sugar orange net positions on exchanges)
Continuous large outflows of BTC.
(See chart for E-ta exchange net positions)
ETH has finally shifted from an inflow state to an outflow state.
(See chart for high-weight selling pressure)
Both BTC and ETH have some older addresses conducting profit-taking sales.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power are unchanged from last week, both in a positive recovery state.
(See chart for global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power last week remained unchanged and is in a positive recovery state.
(See chart for USDC exchange net positions)
Stablecoin purchasing power remains unchanged from last week and is in a positive recovery state.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is buying interest at 85,000; there is selling interest at 100,000.
(See chart for Coinbase off-chain data)
There is buying interest around the price ranges of 85,000 to 90,000; there is a selling interest around the price range of 100,000.
(See chart for Binance off-chain data)
There is a buying interest around the price ranges of 90,000 and 95,000; there is a selling interest around the price range of 100,000.
(See chart for Bitfinex off-chain data)
There is a buying interest around the price ranges of 85000 and 87000; there is a selling interest around the price range of 100000.
Weekly Summary:
News summary:
In the past two days, Bitcoin's market share has dropped by 4%. Some coins have risen to new highs for the second half of the year or for the year. The time Bitcoin stays at a high level in sideways trading is when other coins catch up. This is often the case in bull market cycles. Overall, it seems unlikely that we have seen the peak yet. Bitcoin's market cap share still has room to decline in the future, and some speculative funds are shifting from Bitcoin to other lower market cap projects.
Short-term impact: Pay attention to Wednesday's data, which will influence the probability of interest rate cuts in December.
On-chain long-term insights:
1. Long-term participants are selling chips, while short-term speculators are actively entering the market to take on chips; 2. Large transfers on exchanges indicate a preliminary decline in the purchasing willingness of large players; 3. Whales have sold off slightly; 4. Non-liquid whales still insist on buying.
• Market tone: From the current signs, it is not yet time to see a peak.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. The sentiment in the market has slightly slowed down; 2. Whales have a relatively high holding willingness recently; 3. There may be pressure or resistance from new participants taking profits in the short term; 4. The upward pressure at the current price level is above 95,000-98,000, with fierce competition in the market; 5. The market's risk appetite has slightly increased, and recent volatility may be substantial.
• Market tone: Slowdown, volatility is likely due to the phenomenon of recent participants taking profits, and overall sentiment has also slowed down. Comprehensive observation may indicate increased volatility.
On-chain short-term observation:
1. The risk coefficient is in the red zone, and the risk in derivatives is increasing. 2. New active addresses are at a high level, indicating extremely high market activity. 3. Market sentiment status rating: Greed. 4. Net positions on exchanges for BTC and ETH are in a large outflow state. 5. Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power are unchanged from last week, both in a positive recovery state. 6. Off-chain transaction data indicates buying interest at 85,000; selling interest at 100,000. 7. The probability of not breaking below 87,000-91,000 in the short term is 70%; among them, the probability of not breaking above 100,000-105,000 in the short term is 60%.
• Market tone: The overall state of the short-term market is good. There may be slight pullbacks leading to liquidations in derivatives, but the market's positive sentiment remains high, and the probability of a significant drop is very low.
Additionally, ETH is in a consolidation phase in the short term, and once it breaks through, it may mark the beginning of a small bull season.
Risk reminder: The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not represent directional opinions on investment; please take precautions against market black swan risks. This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
This article is from a submission and does not represent BlockBeats' views.
