The crypto market alternates between bull and bear phases, changing rapidly. This article analyzes Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), etc. in the bull market of 2021, 2023, and 2024, as well as the altcoin seasonal trends, summarizing the key points to grasp the current and future bull market altcoin trends. Although lengthy, there are conclusions that can be reviewed first, hoping readers gain insights after reading. Market knowledge iterates rapidly, continuous learning and adapting to the rhythm is necessary to gain profits, and various viewpoints are for reference and discussion. (K-line is based on weekly units)
End of 2020 - first half of 2021's 519 market
(I) BTC and ETH trends
First wave (October 5, 2020 - December 21, 2020): BTC surged significantly, ETH experienced volatility and increased, ETH appeared weak on the K-line.
Second wave (December 21, 2020 - February 22, 2021): BTC surged and then corrected with volatility, ETH surged significantly with slight fluctuations.
Third wave (March 1, 2021 - May 19, 2021): BTC showed volatility at high levels, ETH's main upward wave fell to 519 for a washout. Initially, BTC surged, and in the mid to late stages, ETH followed, leading altcoins to rise sequentially.
(II) Trends of various altcoin tracks
Platform coins: BNB, MX, HT, etc. had a main upward wave on February 1, 2021, followed by a period of volatility.
Meme track: Doge's second wave has started a main upward wave, SHIB started from January 2021 to May 19.
Public blockchain track: SOL, AVAX, etc. have mostly started their second wave, THETA started its later phase in the first wave.
Game and metaverse track: AXS, etc. experienced volatility in the first wave and a main upward wave in the second.
DEFI track: most like UNI have started their second wave, while some had volatility in the first wave.
Other tracks: FIL, ETC, etc. have started their main upward wave in the third wave.
Second main upward wave market in 2021 (July 2021 - end of 2021)
(I) BTC and ETH trends
BTC and ETH nearly overlap in their rise from July to November 2021.
(II) Trends of various altcoin tracks
Meme track: SHIB surged tenfold after 519, with BABYDOGE, etc. emerging.
Public blockchain track: AVAX, SOL, etc. have reached new highs.
Game and metaverse track: AXS, etc. have reached new highs.
DEFI track: basically stagnant.
Other tracks: FIL, etc. have no new hype to drive up prices.
(III) 2021 bull market altcoin summary
Macroeconomic background: After the 2020 election, due to the pandemic, BTC and ETH surged significantly.
Altcoin situation: general rise in the first half of the year, multiple tracks stagnating and harvesting liquidity in the second half. Public blockchain, gaming, metaverse, and meme are commonly hyped tracks, most popular projects launched in 2019-2020 on secondary markets.
October 2023 - March 2021's third main upward wave market
(I) BTC and ETH trends
BTC and ETH have nearly overlapped in their rise from October 2023 to March 2024.
(II) Trends of various altcoin tracks
Public chains: established public chains such as ETH, SOL, and new public chains like SEI have shown gains.
Meme: ORDI, PEPE, etc. have increased by 5-10 times or more.
AI: ARKM, WLD, etc. have increased by 5-10 times.
Games: PIXEL, etc. have risen by 50% - 2 times.
Others: such as DEFI's PENDEL, etc. have increased by 5-10 times, and METIS in ETH's L2 is doing well with a 10 times increase.
(III) Conclusion
Macroeconomic background: After the interest rate hike in 2022, there was a pause in September, with BTC spot ETF hype.
Altcoin situation: Due to limited funds from tapering, a general rise across all tracks is difficult, and public chains and memes are common narratives for speculation.
Market situation from October 2024 to now
(I) BTC, ETH, and various track trends
BTC and ETH trends have not been mapped yet, currently only MEME is soaring, SOL, SUI, and other established public chains are performing well, and at the time of writing, ETH seems to have started its second wave.
(II) Summary
Macroeconomic background: The interest rate cut cycle begins in September 2024, coupled with Trump's crypto-friendly stance, the end of tapering in Q1 next year, and the spot ETF, the situation is looking good.
Altcoin situation: If the U.S. economy does not enter a recession, ETH will start its second wave of increases, and there is a high probability of a general rise across altcoin tracks. Attention can be focused on new and established public chains, MEME, ETH's L2, AI-related projects, with gaming to be considered later.
How to grasp the hype in the crypto market
Watch Binance's newly listed projects and U.S. macroeconomic and media reports. Binance is a barometer and has good liquidity; U.S. information is also key. Timing and selecting coins must consider multiple factors for valuation, as the market is counterintuitive and cannot rely solely on emotional FOMO.
