The market is relatively boring, so let me talk to you about the issue of judgment logic. Why do I judge that there won’t be a pullback in the main upward trend here? Note that when I say pullback in the main upward trend, it is at least 15% or more, with a duration of three to four weeks for a pullback plus consolidation.
In fact, the logic is very simple, and it can be summarized in a few sentences: there isn’t enough height and time. From the perspective of breaking the new high of 74,000, the rise has lasted less than a month, and the height is only over 20,000 points. If we start a phase pullback from here, both the intensity and time of the pullback will not allow for too much. One important point I often mention is that the beginning of a market trend will not end in a short period, especially in the main upward trend. Therefore, it is undoubtedly that we are currently in the main upward trend. A main upward trend from initiation to pullback to peak and then to consolidation often takes at least several months. Short-term retracement is only for better upward movement. I originally felt it was a bit too fast; loyal followers should know that I have mentioned several times that it has exceeded my expectations. I thought there would be more consolidation for another week or two in between. Now, it’s not surprising to see a pullback plus consolidation here. After breaking 100,000, we need to pay more attention to the risk of a major pullback. Don’t be led by market sentiment. Oh, 100,000 has broken through, and the next thing is continuous rising. The position of a major pullback will determine the overall height of this bull market. To take a step back, what if a major pullback starts here? It would have to go towards 80,000. Similarly, the overall height of this bull market won’t be too high either, but the probability of this is extremely small. Don’t tell me that anything is possible; I trade based on high certainty trends, not on that ‘what if’ scenario.