Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Last month, the Meme trading platform Moonshot became popular, with the community claiming it solved the 'last mile' problem for Meme tokens and had a strong coin-launch effect. In our (Promoting Meme Trendsetters, Does Moonshot Really Have a Coin-Launch Effect?) backtesting verification, the Moonshot coin-launch effect is extremely short-lived, only significantly effective near the 5-minute mark, with no medium to long-term beneficial effect, inconsistent with community promotion.
However, last week, CHILLGUY saw its market value rise from 16 million USD to 200 million USD within one day after launching Moonshot, and it reached a market value of 500 million USD four days later.
To explore whether Moonshot has reversed the basic pattern of the 'short-lived coin effect', we reviewed the price data of Moonshot tokens launched in the past week to again verify the accuracy of the conclusion.
Short-term coin-launch effect strengthens, but long-term remains ineffective.
In the previous article, we concluded that the price increase of Moonshot coins is significant in the first 5 minutes, slightly differentiated after 1 hour, begins to diverge after 4 hours, and ultimately most tend to go to zero.
The price increases of 11 tokens launched in the past week in 5 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours, and to date are shown in the figure below.
It can be seen that the average price increase in 5 minutes has risen from 14.7% a month ago to 30.6%, and most can maintain this price increase during the 1-hour stage. This indicates that Moonshot coin launches are likely to have become the domain of 'quantitative announcement robots', with almost all of the price increase in 5 minutes derived from Bot news arbitrage.
Extending the time frame, price fluctuations began to diverge, with most continuing to decline except for CHILLGUY, and some tokens are already close to zero.
Detailed data presentation
The price fluctuations of Moonshot coins in the first five minutes are shown in the figure below. In this figure, we have included the closing market value one minute before the token launch for comparison, clearly indicating that the five-minute price increase is significantly negatively correlated with the initial market value; the larger the market value, the less likely it is to rise, or it again confirms that the price increase during this stage is brought about by news arbitrage Bots.
The price increase of the token in 1 hour is shown in the figure below; most maintain their original price increase, and the author speculates this may be caused by the turnover between Bots and real users.
The price fluctuations after 4 hours and 24 hours are shown in the figure below (excluding CHILLGUY due to its excessively high rise); the price fluctuations of various tokens began to diverge, but most 'broke' and continued to decline. By the 24-hour stage, out of 10 tokens, 6 had declined, and excluding CHILLGUY, the average price increase over 4 hours was 5%, and the price change over 24 hours was -2%.
The price increase since the token announcement is shown in the figure below, excluding CHILLGUY, with an average decline of 41.5%.
In summary, it is very clear that CHILLGUY is just an exception among Moonshot coin launches; the 'short-term coin-launch effect' of Moonshot has strengthened, but only arbitrage Bots can profit, while the 'medium to long-term wealth creation effect' still does not exist.